Analysis Of Water Multiplier In Henan Province Based On Social Accounting Matrix

Henan province is a big agricultural province, under the area south of Yellow River urbancluster’s background, She seeks to find a way of ensuring food safety and does not seek to develop at theexpense of agriculture,nor at the expense of the trivoltine coordinated development.And agriculture in thenational economy in the use of water accounted for nearly60%, so the research of relations betweenHenan’s agricultural water and social economic, has a certain practical significance.After summarizing water resources at home and abroad and the social economical progress, thispaper analyzes that Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) has its advantages in researching water resources andsocial economical problems, elaborates the basic principle of SAM and the basic thought and method ofSAM including water resources. On this basis, we collect the2010input-output table of42departments ofHenan province, the cash flow statement and relevant statistics and data, make up the the Henan’s2010macro SAM including water resources about10departments, by Cross Entropy (CE) method, the Henan’s2010macro SAM balanced table including water resources is gotten. Then the balanced table is split andbalanced again, we get the Henan’s2010micro SAM balanced table including water resources about23departments. Using the cross entropy method of SAM, the micro balanced table is analyzed from themultiplier analysis and structural path analysis, finally it is concluded that water resources related to impacton the industry of the national economy departments of Henan province.Finally the following conclusions showed that:First, in2010in Henan province,the agriculturedepartment (farming, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and agricultural services) of IO output multiplierrankings are less than the ranking of SAM output multiplier. Department of agriculture net SAM multipliereffect were3.5732,2.0737,4.0856,2.0737and4.0856, and the department of agriculture transfer effect isgenerally small, its effect value were0.5667,0.2135,1.2315,0.5667and0.6615, indicates that theagriculture department within the production activities account role is very limited.Second, due to the agricultural sector of water production and supply industry, construction andservices transfer effect is small, the production and supply of water industry transfer effect are respectively0.000002,0.000001,0.000003,0.000001,0.000003, and the construction and service industry transfereffects were0.062744,0.018922,0.133176,0.049780,0.121662, shows that Henan’s agriculture department and the water production and supply industry, construction and services of direct contact is notclose. The department of agriculture for food and other manufacturing transfer effect is greater than theclosed-loop effect, it shows that food and other manufacturing and agriculture linked directly more closely.Third, in the industry of Henan province’s department,agricultural production and waterproduction and supply industry are closed to the factors of production water. When the department ofagriculture add external injection of1000units, respectively, will lead to a rise in the cost of water is4.951units respectively,2.554units,4.173units,3.41units and4.556units; The production and supply of waterindustry increased external injection of1000units, will lead to the cost of water increases717.076units;When exogenous injection of1000yuan, department of agricultural production and water production andsupply industry demand for water will increase190.423m3,98.231m3and160.5m3,131.154m3and175.231m3and385.525m3.Fourth, the rural residents in Henan province by external shocks (mainly government subsidiesand transfer payment) of the leading role of national economy of Henan province, relative to the effect ofurban residents from the impact is much larger.Fifth, the water production and supply industry’s price changes affect larger mainly is thedepartment of agricultural sector; Greatly influenced by the price of the water resources department mainlyinclude water production and supply industry, paper industry, farming, agricultural services, oil chemicalindustry, food and other manufacturing industries.In the end,for the vast majority of the industry sector, because of water cost accounts for theproportion of total output share less than0.1%, so the effect of water price changing and the pricemultiplier net basic most is direct route, passing through indirect path is very limited, the influence ofindirect transfer path in the middle of the node is generally the price of water cost, and the proportion ofintermediate input higher multiplier sectors to indirect transfer process, in this paper, the structural pathanalysis in the process, these nodes are mainly water production and supply industry, electricity, heat, gasindustry, paper industry etc.