A Quantitative Study On The Characteristics Of Fruits Supply And Demand In China

On the basis of exploring the relationship between fruit demand and supply, main affecting factors are extracted from the complex system, and the intrinsic mechanization are analyzed among different factors in this study. The research results could serve as the guideline to make fruit industry developing policy and production structure adjustment. Main contents are as followed:1) Firstly, the dynamic characteristics of China's fruit supply are analyzed and undulation characteristic and its tendency are studied. After comparing with other main fruit production countries, existing problems in our country's fruit supplies and the main factors in fruit supplies are explored economically.2) Secondly, the fruit demanding characteristic, undulation and its tendency in China are analyzed. Existing problems of China's fruit demand, its main influential factors are studied after comparing with those in developed countries.3) Thirdly, the economic characteristics of fruit supply and demand are studied and the main factors are extracted from the complex fruit supply and demand system. By using Peasant's Input Behavior under risk condition, the partial adjustment model, the economic anticipation theory and theory deduction method, the fruit demand and supply model was established.4) Fourthly, Taking combination analysis model, using the classic method of establishing econometric model, taking fruit total quantity, apple and grape as examples, to construct combination analysis model of Chinese fruit supply and demand relations, analyze mutual relations among fruit's supply, demand and the price, and its economic characteristics from the quota perspective, and then to theoretically analyze the main factor which influences fruit supply and demand relations most and existing problems in fruit supply and demand relations .5) Finally, based on theory of supply and demand, by using the dynamic method of econometric model, the long-term correlative model and short-term fluctuant model for aggregate fruit, apple and grape are established, and then the stability of long-term correlation and characteristics of short-term fluctuant between fruits supply-demand and their affecting factors are analyzed.The models set up in this study could be used to explain economic characteristics in fruit supply and demand system, to find out existing problems in fruit industry and, above all, provide theoretical foundation to find out the problems of the industry.