Risk Analysis On Investment In Exploiting And Rebuilding Haihe River In Tianjin

The dredging project of Haihe river, which was the major component of "Haihe waterfront Comprehensive Development Plan" is closely associated with the results that whether the whole plan could achieve its expected objective smoothly. The input fund of Haihe development is raised from mortgage the land income right of Tianjin city. In this paper, thorough study on invest risk of Haihe development project was conducted. Purpose of this study was to find out the more effective risk analysis method and use it to ensure the more smoothly run of this project. In this paper, based on the study of various methods calculating the risk occurrence probability, a new method TAN method was obtained, which was the combination of improved TOPSIS method, AHP method and Network Response Surface method. This new method was used into the invest risk analysis of Haihe development project and calculation were carried out on the related invest risk occurrence probability caused by all kinds of risk factors. Considering different losing degree of invest risk derived from various kinds of risk factors. It could be concluded that there exists some risks during implementing the Haihe development project which shouldn't be ignored and needed further control and manage by department in charge of this project. Since the "Haihe waterfront comprehensive Development Plan" used the land income of Tianjin as its main source of loan repayment. The future developing trend of land price in Tianjin would most directly determined the loan repayment risk of this project. In this paper, all kinds of factors influencing the average land price were taken into account. A calculation method of modificatory factor was proposed. Thereby, we could evaluate and compare effects on the whole projects caused by different influence factors. When analysis and calculate the land price of the main predict object, CMAC arithmetic of network method was used and improved. Through using CMAC method, the predict value of land pride after amended was obtained.