The Research On Power Supplier Bidding Strategy In The Electricity Market

The electricity market is not a perfect competitive one but rather theoligarch market. So the game behavior and unknown, uncertain factors existsin the electricity market. The power suppliers can maximize their own profitsby bidding strategy. How to establish bidding strategy has become the keyissue for the power supplier, which is studied in this paper.The first, this paper makes the research on the power supplier biddingstrategy which can maximize its income in the spot market under the uniformclearing price mechanism. The paper adopts the linear bidding function,respectively gives the best bidding strategy with the load is constant or the loadhas the elasticity. Then the paper establishes the mixed strategy model toexpress the strategy combination of power suppliers, then gives thecorresponding profit function. The paper also uses the fuzzy set method todescribe the competitors, then gives the equilibrium model. This part is one ofthe innovations of the paper.The second, this paper establishes the electricity price forecasting modelusing wavelet neural networks based on the genetic algorithm. The exampleshows that this model can effectively improve the forecasting precision andavoid the limitation of the BP neural networks model. Based on the forecastingprice, the paper establishes the power supplier's bidding model, then adopts thegenetic algorithm to solve the model.The third, this paper establishes the bidding model for the power supplierin the contract market using the Bayesian equilibrium theory. The paperestablishes the model about the two power suppliers compete for selling theelectricity to the big customer. Then the paper educes the N power suppliersbidding model. The paper establishes the model under a direct contract, that is,trading between single big electricity consumer and single generator. Themodel includes the extended model considering the supply-demand situation,then the paper discusses the probability that meets the two parts requirement.This part is one of the innovations of the paper.The fourth, from the viewpoint of the power supplier, the paperestablishes the combination bidding model including the spot market andcontract market, gives the best bidding electricity quantity in the contractmarket. The paper gives the definition of the "best response price" in the spotmarket. In addition, the paper studies the impact of the contract quantity on the"best response price" according to the microeconomics theory. From theviewpoint of the best combined bidding strategy, the paper studies the biddingstrategy whose objective is to reduce the risk and ensure the cost can beretrieved, then through solving the model to minimize the risk rate to get thebidding quantity in the different market. In addition, this paper makes theresearch of the bidding strategy for power supplier attending or not attendingthe contract market. This part is one of the innovations of the paper.The fifth, the paper analyzes the power supply market using the marketefficiency principle, bring forward the performance standard for analyzing theelectricity market, that is the power supply market efficiency and equality.Then the paper gives the math model to simulate the power supply market,analyzes the important factors to influence the market. Then the paper studiesthe impact of the consumer's bidding to the power supply market and gives thecorresponding decision-making model.