A Study On Aversing The Risk Of Cotton Production And Management With Information Technology

There exited many new problems and new tasks in cotton production of our country from 21th century. As a kind of industry primary material, cotton is one of the most important economic crops in our country, and its commodity rate is up to 95%. Cotton industry not only is the important cash sources of 300 million cotton farmers, but also relates to employment of 10 million textile and other related industry's workers, relates to the stability of national economy and the development of cotton spinning industry.Aimed to the unstable problems of cotton production and management, prices and qualities, which resulted in being loath to sell, overstock, rot and going bad, through a thorough study of the risks of cotton production, management and administration, aversing the risk of cotton production and management with information technology was studied in this dissertation. The main contents were as follows:1. The dissertation discussed the ground and the meaning , analysed the current situation how to averse the cotton risk in internal and outernal. Definited a lot of important ideas, such as:risk, risk management, uncertainty, and information technology;The research method, route,content and the new ideas were put forward in the first section.2. Basic theory of aversing the risk of cotton production and management with information technology. (1) Information economic theory of bargaining relationship and contract arrangement under unsymmetry information conditions;(2) There exited certain risks of the utilization and spread of information technology, this closely related to ones risk fondness, but its results can't be underestimated;(3) The outflow effects of information technology have enhanced the productivity of cotton chain, optimized the resource collocation, increased the income of cotton farmers;(4) The application of information technology led to accurate production of cotton, developed the bargaining of futures and option, reduced information unsymmetry, reduced the frequency and degree of risks;(5) The theory of the agricultural economy analysed the relationship of input and output in thd function of agricultural production;(6) The theory of risk management provided the basis for people to recognize and utilize risk.3. Using information technology assisted the cotton persons recognise natural disastersystem, master the methods of risk analyse, realize the kinds of cotton risks, in order to suit the remedy to the case;analysed the factors of aversing the risk of cotton production and management with information technology, such as the market relationship of cotton industry and other industries, problems of cotton farmers, system factors and market environment.4. As cotton production was a kind of un-reversible process, and faced to the risks of materials, growth management, region program and planting, so it was very important to master the information of planting areas, productions, trades and policies. In this dissertation, forecast model of yield and relationship of production and consumption were put forward by time sequence forecast methods, so as to provide references for cotton farmers, averse the risk of decision-making. Utilized cotton farmers action and information technology, improved the accurate production of cotton.5. Using information technology made full use of the price discovery function of futures market, transferred and averted price risk, obtained risk income by risk investment, this reduced the management cost in some degree, spurned some limitations of cotton spot transaction, and locked up the produce cost, realized risk control, saved storage money, stabilized the channels of supply and marketing, and gained the risk profits.6. Illuminated the necessity of cotton risk management, risk management methods such as risk control, risk financing, control of inner risk were put forward by analyzing the stratagem significance and goal of analysis management of cotton. The cotton risk management system structure under information technology was formed.7. Countermeasures and advices of aversing the risk of cotton production and management with information technology were put forward, that were, set up information network system, strengthen the spreading of information technology;increased the stability of cotton policies, startup emergency mechanism of storage cotton;guarantee the cotton quality, increase the international competitiveness;strengthen the realization of cotton production and management risk of cotton farmers;train the cotton persons in different administrative levels and grade according to information degree, and enhance their diathesis;establish cotton data-base, provide references for cotton production and management;strengthen the study and service of cotton information, establish cotton early-warning system;set up the risk fund of production, enhance the accurate of the cotton prodection.