| The discussions at the Johannesburg 2002 World Summit made clear that policies for renewable energy (RE) are essential to achieve sustainable development in a broad sense. Environmental protection, job creation, and security of supply are some of the key issues to mention. It is also necessary to develop ethanol project in our country. The first 600,000 ton ethanol project of our country carried out in Jilin province in September of 2001, symbolizing the first step of ethanol industry in China. Following is some aspect of study carried out about developing our country's ethanol industry. 1 Overview of domestic and international research Ethanol industry rose in the 70's of the last centre, and was well developed in Brazil and American, urged economists to carry out a thorough research about it. Mainly three aspects are concerned: research of general situation of ethanol industry, research of ethanol industry cost and technique progress, research of function of related special policy to the development of ethanol industry. The ethanol industry is just carried out in our country, and economist's study about it is mainly qualitative analysis. It include following aspect: research about development of ethanol industry development in other countries, particularly in Brazil and America, discussion about significance of development of our country's ethanol industry, analysis about the possibility and corresponding policy need to be given of developing our country's ethanol industry, estimation of income and expenses during expansion of ethanol usage, etc. 2 Introduction of status of ethanol industry's development Increment of knowledge about ethanol property pushed popularization of ethanol in all country, and bring the increment of ethanol's production year by year. Experts estimate that ethanol consumption's annually increment reach to be two to three percent. Currently the most mature countries in ethanol industry development are Brazil and United States. Their experience confirmed that special policy and technique supports are keys to the development of ethanol industry. At the same time, the development of ethanol industry alleviated the security of supply problem and air pollution, creating more jobs at the same time. Faced with the problem of security of supply, environment pollution, agriculture structure adjustment,and to develop balance and equalize national economy, our country's government made the decision of save no effort to develop ethanol industry. There are certain beneficial conditions to develop ethanol industry in our country right now. Trend of collecting vehicle fuel tax, possible forbidding of oxygenated gasoline additive MTBE are some of the key issue to mention. But constrains of economic, production, technique, and environment must also be consider. 3 Function of developing ethanol industry to solve the security of supply problem Our country's security of supply problem will be more and more obvious in the near future. Petroleum is the motive of national economic development. The influence of Petroleum to macroscopic economy can be getting through Granger method. The consumption of Petroleum changed according to overall development of industry. Forecast of gasoline consumption using trend analysis method get following result: the annually petroleum consumption will be 380,000,000 tons and 340,000,000 tons respectively at the year of2005 and 2010. According to the estimation of relevant department, the annually output of petroleum at the year of 2005 and 2010 will be only 170,000,000 tons and 195,000,000 tons respectively, which means that import are needed to make up the indentations. That is to say the importing petroleum reaches to 39.2% and 42.6% respectively of the total consumption. Developing of ethanol industry helps to resolve the security of supply problem of china. Adding certain percentage ethanol to gasoline results ethanol gasoline, saves some gasoline consumption, and lower import dependence. Gasoline consumption will be 41,000,000 tons at 2005. Assume adding 10 percent of ethanol, 4,500,000 tons of ethanol will be needed, which saves 3,800,000 tons gasoline, accounts to 1.36% of petroleum demand, and 3.45% of petroleum imports. 4 Contribution of the ethanol industry development to the environment protection Fundamentally, the contributions of ethanol industry to the environment protection are: usage of ethanol helps to decrease harmful gas released by automobile, improves air quality, protect soil, and reduces the pollution of production other oxygenated gasoline additive and process petroleum. To take Peking as an example, usage of ethanol greatly decreased the air pollution cause by automobile. According to the forecast of quantity of automobile using Holter-Winter Additive, it will reach to 2,600,000 at year 2008, which means a production of 2,000,000 tons of harmful materials. Study shows, with 10% of ether additive, and without replace engine, CO and HC exhaust amount will decrease 30.8% and 13.4% respectively, which will alleviate air pollution status of Peking. At the same time, with the market radius of china's first ethanol project reaching to 1500 km. or so, sales of ethanol at Peking city at the year 2008 can be guaranteed.5 Function of 600,000 tons ethanol project to economic development of Jilin province Developing a 600,000 tons ethanol project and making it operations efficiently, are useful to provide a corn conversion outlet, balance the supply and demand situation at Jilin province, and stabilize corn price, promote corn production and consume cycle, stabilize agriculture production of Jilin. At the same time, developing of ethanol industry is useful to alleviate central and local government's finance pressure: the annually consume of corn by producing ethanol can save 726,000,000 yuan for export subsidize, which save 243,000,000 yuan of public finance subtracting 483,000,000 yuan of national public finance annual subsidy for a 6000,000 tons ethanol project, reduce the corn warehouse to subsidize 63,000,000 yuan annually at the same time, reduce 63,000,000 yuan of corn warehouse subsidize, save 26,000,000 yuan per year of investment for construction warehouse. Developing ethanol industry also helps to increase employment, promote local economic development, which will brings good social benefit. The 600,000 tons ethanol project provides 1185 employment chance directly, with 16,000,000 yuan income per year. The related profession provides 5750 employment opportunities suppose 100,000 yuan production value per capita. The 600,000 ethanol project can also produce 574,000 tons of albumen feedstuff, helpful to promote stockbreeding of Jinlin. 6 feasibility assessments of constructing 600,000 tons ethanol factory Based on study of our country's current ethanol market status and estimating of future ethanol demand, the feasibility assessments is done on constructing 600,000 tons ethanol project. The factor that affects the production scale mainly includes: the risk of target market capacity and scale extension, raw materialpurchase and products sales and project implement condition etc, and other additional conditions such as railroad conveyance, highway conveyance, and headwaters supply etc. Given above-mentioned factors, to carry out a 600,000 tons ethanol project is accord with intention of developing green fuel of our country. Using weighted average method, ethanol price under different gasoline price was calculated. Under changing of different corn purchase price and crude oil price, influence of public finance subsidy to ethanol price was calculated. The total income of the project was calculated too. To develop ethanol industry of China, in addition of using foreign experience for reference, more attention should be given to its own situation based on scientific investment. To make related special policy, following characteristics should be include: special policy should be given to experimental district, develop domestic market of ethanol using administration method, making special policy about using ethanol gasoline, making stage object of developing ethanol industry, establish different tax rate to different profession to support renewable energy construction and technique investment. The business of ethanol itself should give more attention on introduce risk capital into enterprise's development process. Extend the raw material source, given attention to recycle use of material and prevent of repeated pollution, Increase the usage of by-product. Ethanol is renewable and green energy. To develop vehicle-use ethanol gasoline is a strategic policy related to our country's security of supply, agriculture development stability, and environmental protection. It is also important to sustainable development of our country economy.
|
PDF Full Text Request