Models Of Integrated Supply Chain Of Primary Agricultural Products And Their Application

Supply Chain Management (SCM) is a hot issue. It is promising to be used widely. Agri- SCM is an important research area of SCM. At present, integrated SCM (ISCM) of agricultural products is one of the most powerful competitive tools for agricultural enterprises. In this thesis, increasing large-scale suppliers' income is the object, and focusing on the SC of primary agricultural products which is made up of several large-scale suppliers, one large-scale processor and several large-scale wholesalers, the effective strategies of integrated collaboration, pricing, planning and control of production are mainly studied by modelling method based on the background of HeiLongJiang Land Reclamation System. Some results are obtained as follows.1. According to the characters of the SC, a Four-Dimensional Network's Model of the SC is established which improves the structural model of Lambert etc (2000). The analytic principles for the improvement of the SC are presented based on the structural model. Based on the analysis for the SC of rice in the HeiLongJiang Land Reclamation System by using the model and the principles, the key restrictions to improve the SC are gained. Consequently, the Four-Dimensional Network's strategies of collaboration are presented. Moreover, the analytic framework is constructed for integrating and optimizing the SC according to the order from the analysis of Four-Dimensional Network's Model, the collaborative strategies and optimizing the integration of the SC by model. The analytic framework presents a method for ISCM.2. The suppliers' discounts pricing strategy is presented based on a threshold cointegration model under the market prices of primary agricultural products. The character of the model is taking transactions costs into account only by the two prices data of the suppliers and the wholesalers. So the model can resolve the problem that the transactions costs are not easily observed. The threshold cointegration model, which improving the threshold cointegration model of Balke etc (1997), is presented according to the characters of primary agricultural products' flows in the SC. A Stochastic Global Optimization Algorithm (SGOA)including Simulated Annealing and Evolution Strategy is presented because the estimation of the model is a special combinatorial optimization problem. The empirical work of a SC of soybean shows that the model fit better than the model of Balke etc by test. And there are relationships of threshold cointegration between the wholesale prices of the supplier and its wholesalers in the spatially separated markets in the SC of soybean. In this case, it is more appropriate for a large-scale supplier to forecast price in short time based on the threshold cointegration method than the linear cointegration method. The forecast precision of the proposed SGOA is acceptable, and its computing time is about 3 percent of that of the Grid Search.(3) The research framework of effective strategies for ISC is presented under the market prices of primary agricultural products governed by government. The growers and the processor are pricing by the suppliers' discounts pricing strategy keeping away from the no profit pricing from the restrictions of transactions costs. The planning of production for growers and the processor are made by the value-based pricing procedure. The effective strategies of government are made by the strategies transmitted as the restrictions of the cost or price of the model and the planning. The two important questions are resolved:?The growers optimize their model of production by the model of material flow and income in the mixed agroecosystem. The growers can reduce the impact, came from the random of production, on the planning of production through some uncontrolled factors, such as accumulated temperature, precipitation and organic matter in soil, are put into the model. The model can optimize the growers' model under the forecast of different prices, cost and effective strategies by the government.?The strategies of government are exogeneity in the SC. And the strategies' effectiveness is the same as that of the agricultural fiscal policies for the farmers' income in a certain extent. So the formers' income is used as an indicator of performance to evaluate the effective strategies of government by to evaluate the effectiveness of the agricultural fiscal policies in Macro approach. A procedure of building a structural cointegrated system model is presented based on the test and application of cointegration, exogeneity and causality for policy analysis. The procedure provides a rational approach to reduce cointegrated system in small sample for policy analysis. To analyze the effectiveness of some important agricultural fiscal policies by the procedure, the VAR model is built for the analysis of long run elasticity and impulse response function, and the corresponding cointegration model and SVECMmodel are built for the analysis of short run elasticity. The government's effective strategies for supporting the integration of the SC are presented based upon the analysis of the effectiveness of some important agricultural fiscal policies and the key restrictions to integrate the SC. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed models.