| This thesis probes into the cyclical fluctuation of Hong Kong's economy in the past 40 years, attempting to analyze the cause and law of its cyclical fluctuation as well as how the HKSAR government regulates its economy to reduce the adverse effect brought by cyclical fluctuation, on this basis, probing into the economic development and industrial structure adjustment in the future of Hong Kong further.After decades of development nearly, Hong Kong has already been classified as one of the highly developed countries and regions lists by the World Bank, its achievement of world interest has aroused the attention from people all over the world. They use various kinds of theories, various kinds of methods to analyze the experience that Hong Kong have achieved, and have even formed Hong Kong Study. However, people have ignored such a fact that any economic development is not all plain sailing, the economy of Hong Kong has undergone numerous shocks and fluctuations, that is to say, the fluctuation in economic cycle has accompanied the whole course of Hong Kong's economic development all the time.Hong Kong is going through the most severe depression of these decades at present, its reason is in many aspects, but the main reason is that Hong Kong's economy is in the low ebb of economic cycle and its industrial structure is in the period of transition at present. And the adjustment of this cycle is much longer, accompanying the whole course of industrial structure adjustment, with the completion of Hong Kong's industrial structure adjustment, Hong Kong economy will move towards brilliant again.This thesis introduces the economic crisis theory of Marxism and the western theory in economic cycle briefly at first. The theory is one of the theories discussed most hot in the economic theory history, the anterior are the important theory foundation stone that we carry on research now about the theory. Through the study on theories in economic cycle of forefathers, on one hand can put the historical train of thought of the theory in economic cycle in order, on the other hand, theory these analytical method study to us Hong Kong have important enlightenment meanings economic cycle.There are many methods used to analyze economic cycle, we mainly utilize the rate of GDP increase while analyzing Hong Kong's economic cycle, adopt the directmethod to analyze its economic cycle's fluctuation. Studies have shown that, from 1961, the economic development of Hong Kong is divided into 10 cycles altogether, and recent cycle is entering adjustment period at present since 1999. The general characteristics of Hong Kong's economic cycle are: heavy amplitude, high peak location, dark valley location, high average potential and long expanding length, shown as the fast development in highly fluctuating of Hong Kong economy generally. At present, Hong Kong's economy is going through the 10th round of cycle, its duration is comparatively greatly lengthened, up till now, have already gone through for 6 years.The pillar industry of Hong Kong includes foreign trade industry, manufacturing industry, real estate, communication and transportation business, tourist industry, financial circles, etc. In the thesis, we analyze the developing stage and trade characteristics in cyclical fluctuation of these six trades, looking forward to the future development prospects of these trades.The causes influencing Hong Kong to fluctuate in economic cycle can be divided into endogenous factors and external factors, the external factors include: natural factor, population factor, technological factor, policy factor psychological factor, inland factor, international factor, political factor,etc. The endogenous factors include: institutional factor, consumption factor , investment factor, financial factor, monetary factor ,etc. The comprehensive influence of the above-mentioned factors form the fluctuation curve of economic cycle in near decades in Hong Kong.Hong Kong is the city possessing capitalist characteristic most in the world, the Hong Kong government has always followed the positive non-intervention policy, rarely regulating its economy, but the regulation upon economic cycle is an inevitable result when the economy developed into certain stage. If the Hong Kong government wants to reduce the destructive influence to economy which is brought about by the economic cycle, she must set up corresponding economic cycle regulation department, adopt the corresponding macro regulation policy, set up the corresponding index system of regulation and control. Through the study on Hong Kong's economic indicator, we attempt to set up a set of prediction system including leading index, unanimous index and index of lagging behind to observe and control the trends of economic cycle, so as to reflect and regulate Hong Kong's economy.The economic cyclical fluctuation has close relations with industrial structureadjustment. In the economic development history of Hong Kong, each industrial structure adjustment must bring about a new round of economic growth, in other words, form new economic cyclical fluctuation on the new economic growth level. Since the financial storm breaking out in 1998, economy of Hong Kong hasn't taken a favorable turn, the main reason is that Hong Kong have not formed its own pillar industry. Only by forming the new industrial structure, could Hong Kong move from recovering towards upsurge. The policy goal of industrial structure adjustment is to form the key industry, the future key industry of Hong Kong must be the Hi-Tech industry. If only Hong Kong utilizes its own resource advantage and research strength of the mainland, can the region form its own new key industry in the near future, and therefore drive the development of foreign trade, real estate, tourism, financial circles, Hong Kong economy is sure to move towards brilliant again.This thesis is divided into 7 chapters altogether, the basic content of every chapter is as follows:Chapter 1 investigate to history of the theory in economic cycle, investigating Marx's economic crisis theory and the western theory in economic cycle mainly, offering the theoretical foundation and analytical method for us to analyze the cyclical economic fluctuation of Hong Kong.Chapter 2 is the analysis on the history of Hong Kong's cyclical economic fluctuation, analyzing the behavior, type and general characteristics of Hong Kong's cyclical economic fluctuation as well as the corresponding economic state of development with the cyclical fluctuation.Chapter 3 is the analysis on the industrial structure characteristics of Hong Kong's cyclical economic fluctuation, mainly analyzing the state of economic cycle in pillar industry: foreign trade industry, manufacturing industry , real estate , communication and transportation business , tourist industry , financial circles, so that we can hold the whole train of Hong Kong's cyclical economic fluctuation in a comprehensive way.Chapter 4 is the analysis on factors that influence the economic cycle in Hong Kong. It mainly analyzes the causes of Hong Kong's economic cycle from external factor and endogenous factor. The cyclical economic fluctuation of Hong Kong is a comprehensive result of endogenous factors and external factors.Chapter 5 is the analysis on the current economic cycle of Hong Kong,analyzing the cause, influence and trend of the latest economic cycle in Hong Kong mainly, point out that the completion of the industrial structure adjustment is the precondition of the economic prosperity, the Hong Kong government should strengthen the regulation on economic cycle and speed up the adjustment of industrial structure.Chapter 6 probes into the control and regulation on Hong Kong's cyclical economic fluctuation, mainly probing into Hong Kong's existing system that regulates the cyclical economic fluctuation and propose to set up corresponding index.Chapter 7 studies Hong Kong's economic cyclical fluctuation and its industrial structure adjustment, focused on the relation of them as well as the conditions to form the new key industry and the direction towards which the Hi-Tech industry develops.
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