Research On Demand Side Of Chinese Tourism

In recent years tourism has become one of the fastest growing sectors of the world economy and is widely recognized for its contribution to regional and national economic development. In addition to the generation of foreign exchange earnings tourism also alleviates the balance of payments problems, creates employment and contributes significantly towards the increase of income, savings, investment and social growth. Demand and supply are two key elements to tourism development. But for historical reasons, we pay special attention to tourism supply and support system, and neglect the demand side of tourism.Under the background of the fast development of world tourism demand, based on the former researches in this field , focusing on the structure and tendency of tourism demand, the coordinated development relations between tourism demand and tourism investment, this desertion applies the theories and methods of economics, management and modern mathematics to do system research on demand side of tourism.Structure of tourism demand is investigated through the specification of lineal almost ideal demand system (LAIDS) model. Estimated parameters and elasticity coefficients are plausible and consistent with demand theory. The estimation results show that demands of Chinese inbound tourists in different provinces (such as Beijing, Guangdong, Jiangsu, etc.) are quite different. The inclusions of product characteristics/attributes in tourism analysis appear to strongly contribute towards the better understanding of travel choice behaviors.While study on the tendency of tourism demand, two theoretical frameworks are proposed, which are based on model of wavelet and generalized regression neural network (GRNN) separately. In case study, demand of Taiwan's inbound tourists is researched through GRNN model.A system dynamics model (SD-TDI) is build to study on the coordinated development systems of tourism demand and investment. The simulation analysis suggest that the system is sensitive to many elements, such as tourism promotion, urbanization, overseas tourism investment, interest rate, depreciation rate changes etc.