Research On The Appraisal And Decision-making In Venture Capital

This dissertation gives a deep study of the appraisal and decision-making in venture capital.The groundwork is as follows:As the indices are uncertainly in venture capital project appraisal, the performances and weights of the indices are represented by the fuzzy variable. Weights of the indices are determined by fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. Then the model of the fuzzy simulation analytic hierarchy process (FSAHP) is established in venture capital project appraisal.Because of the shortage of the information of relevant historical data in reality, in addition the high uncertainty and risk of the venture capital, it is difficult to predict the free cash flows of investment project accurately, and its rough interval range can only be got. In view of this kind of situation, this dissertation sets up a Fuzzy Discounted Cash Flow model, describing the free cash flows and present rate of investment project as fuzzy variables, and provides an example to calculate the value of investment project using the fuzzy simulation method. In addition, this dissertation also considers the uncertainty of the income and state probability in venture capital project, and supposes them fuzzy variable. This dissertation establishes venture capital fuzzy decision-making method based on the average value and the variance of fuzzy variable, and provides the corresponding computation example.In view of the defects of traditional methods of corporate valuation, this dissertation applies the real option theory to the valve appraisal in venture capital project, sets up a multi-stage compound real option model of the valve appraisal in venture capital project, and provides a simple example.The dissertation analyses the main contact mechanism between venture capitalist and entrepreneur, and builds up a model which analyses the difference of financing by debt, equity and convertible debt between venture capitalist and entrepreneur to discuss the different financing tools how to affect their behavior. Then the conclusion that convertible debt can effectively solve the double moral hazard between venture capitalist and entrepreneur is reached.