Research On Value Evaluation Method Of PPP Project Based On Fuzzy Composite Real Options

With the introduction of a new urbanization strategy,the need for infrastructure is rising.At the same time,China is in the new normal economy,which has brought huge financial pressure on the government.In order to ease the shortage of funds,the PPP model emerged.However,the investment enthusiasm for social capital is actually low,mainly because of the phased dynamic investment of the PPP project,the large number of uncertainties,and the strong flexibility of management,which make its expected return more uncertain and risky.Therefore,it is very important for social capital investors to accurately evaluate the investment value of PPP projects,and objective and effective PPP project value evaluation methods are the basic conditions and scientific basis for investors to make correct decisions.This paper first analyzes the high uncertainty,flexibility and multi-phase features of PPP projects.Based on this,it compares and analyzes the existing value assessment methods of PPP projects—the traditional net present value method and the single-stage real option method.Option thinking is more rational when dealing with the uncertainty of the whole process of PPP project investment and the value of flexible decision-making.Then,in view of the B-S option pricing formula,the fuzzy number theory and compound real options method are introduced to construct the fuzzy Geske compound real option value evaluation model.The concrete example is used to verify the scientificity and effectiveness of the pricing model applied to the PPP project..The research shows that the application of the real option method in the field of value assessment has been extensive.However,when there are multiple related options,the real option method will always ignore the interaction between multiple options.Thecomposite real option method can be considered more objectively.The value-added value generated by the interaction of options makes the evaluation result more scientific and objective,but it ignores the ambiguity of the project parameters.The fuzzy compound real option method makes up for the lack of management flexibility of the existing PPP project value evaluation methods,improves the rigid value of the value of the compound real options method,and has higher accuracy for the value evaluation of PPP projects.The compound option value evaluation model based on the quantitative analysis perspective and introducing the theory of fuzzy numbers is more consistent with the actual PPP project,which improves the reliability and scientificity of the assessment results to some extent.