Study On Competitive Price Strategies Of Generation Companies Based On Grey Model

The electrical power market in our country is open only to generate electricity side and oligarch competitive market with incompleteness information is its main character.This paper pays much attention on both how to policy bid for contest price to gain more profit and how to evade risk during the period of running electric power market like this. The knowledge and the methods in this paper are as following:1. The generation companies forecast the electricity quantity of other generation companies based on Cournot Game model and System Cloud Grey Model SCGM(1,h).2. The generation companies forecast their own electricity quantity using Grey Model GM(1,1) and at the same time forecast the power price in Future Contract Agreement Market based on System Cloud Grey Markov Model.3. Game theory's equipoise spot analytical method is not suitable for constructing better strategy of contest price because of electric market with incomplete information.So Conjectural Variation Method is used to construct better strategy of contest price and Multifactor Grey MGM~p(1,n)model optimized is used to forecast the general response Vi for contesting price of electricity quantity in other generation companies.4. The project of Competitive Bidding Strategies is analyzed under different market status and different market information based on the differential equation gained from the math model of furthest Competitive Bidding Strategies. And the contest price curve parameterβis forecasted applying Grey logistic Model.5. Fuel prices are forecasted based on new dimension Cloud Grey Markov Model and electrical burthen is forecasted applying improved verhulst Grey Model. And then the relation between above models is analyzed using linearity regress method. As above,the contest price strategy of generation companies is composed of Competitive Bidding Strategies model, Future Contract and Grey Model. The result shows that forecasting on power price is fit of the contest price character with incomplete information in present Chinese electricity market and is also exact. The generation companies can gain more profit and avoid more risk if their price-making...