Model Research On The Reasonable Toll Rate Of Road In China

The development of toll roads in China has greately improved our traffic condition, at the same time, it also brings heated debate about efficiency and equity. Whether our roads should be tolled? If tolled, and how much is reasonable? Such are two basic questions which this paper has tried to answer, by using Economics, Game Theory, Optimization Method and Fuzzy Theory.This paper can be divided into three sections.The first section analyzed the feasibility of tolling road. Standing on the economic and social properties of road, analyzed the relation of our roads supply and demand, explained what is outer condition that toll road exists, and from the view of social welfare, compared efficiency under government regulation or not regulation situation, and under different operating mode of toll road, distinguished the boundary between tolling and not tolling, pointed out the limits of toll road in China.The second section answered the question how reasonable toll rate comes into being. Firstly, analyzed the supply and demand factors which influence the road market tolling rate, and pointed out that the road market tolling rate faces market failure without government regulation, furthermore, putting forward a concept model to form reasonable toll rate. Secondly, after summarizing past models of road toll rate, by using bi-level programming and traffic equilibrium theory, set up a model to decide the reasonable toll rate based upon a fixed vehicle type, and gived a case to prove. Thirdly, gived a mixed AHP-ANN method to decide different toll rate coefficient of different vehicle type, moreover, by considering traffic proportion of different vehicle type and keeping toll income unchanged, put the reasonable toll rate of a fixed vehicle type to different vehicle type. Fourthly, by using a fuzzy cluster method, classified different vehicle type in order to achieve equity.The last section relaxed supposed conditions in such model, and evaluated risks in the process of shaping the reasonable toll rate, suggesting that concession contract in the operation of toll road could help relieve risks. Specially, because operation cost information is asymmetry between government and corporation, set up a Bayesian Game model, trying to inspire the corporation. Furthermore, brought forward "price cap" method to dynamic adjust the reasonable toll rate.