Positive Research On Hebei Province Economic Cycles And Its Reasons

Business cycle is a common phenomenon in the economic progress all over the world. Under the planned economic system, the economy was affected greatly by the plan-makers, as result, the objective laws of economic growth was disturbed and twisted to a large extent, leading to economic growth turning up and down wildly for many times. Since the reform, the functions of market mechanism are becoming stronger and stronger with the transforming the planned economic into the socialist market economy. As result of that, the economic cycles have come into a new stage different from any old one. Business cycles are the universal phenomenon beyond the economic system and development, which is not affected by peoper's subjective will. So it can not easily be discarded by artificial methods, however, people can get familiar with it and avoid its violent fluctuation and reduce the affection to our national economy.The paper uses the following analyzing way: focusing on the theory of the reproduction, the capitalistic crises, absorbed in the outcome of the Western economic fluctuations, summing up the history of studies on the China's economic fluctuations, incarnating the combination of history, comparison, macro-analyzing and micro-analyzing, using modern instruments to constructing a frame combined by the internal trans-mechanism and external impacting mechanism; generalizing the ordinary point of Hebei Province economic fluctuations. Four major issues are considered for this purpose: understand the mechanism, establish the watching system, and forecast the trend, finally discuss the effective step. According to this purpose, the paper is divided into 7 chapters.Chapter one systematically clarifies the literatures about the theory of the capitalist economic risis and the significance to study on the Hebei Province economic fluctuations under the socialist marketing economy, then, evaluating the western doctrine to the economic cycles, introducing the new trend. Finally, discussing the research on the China's economic fluctuations.Chapter two shows the overall objective statistical description of the Hebei Province economic fluctuations since 1953, explaining the concerned choice of the target system, the division of phase, measuring way of cyclic length, explaining the basic concepts.After discussing chaper two, chaper three clarifies the change of Hebei Province economic fluctuations, from the following 6 aspects: scope, height, depth, whole station, enlargement, length of extract, coeficient. Then generalizes the industrial structure of Hebei Province economic fluctuations. We have studied the relation between the three industries and GDP fluctuations. The analysis shows that the secondary industry afects the national economy most heavily, while the primary industry weakliest.Chapter fore carries on the comparison to Hebei Province and China's economic cycle, the research discoveres that economic cycles of them were extremely similar, the correlation coefficient reached as high as 0.85. But Hebei Province economic fluctuation is fiercer.Chapter five enumerates and analyses the main elements, which influences Hebei Province economic fluctuations, devise them into external factor and interal factor. Also, we take nature, population, policy technology psychology as the external ones to conclude that they will make the efect of arouse, promote and strengthen while they are all to be stimulated. Institution, investment, consumption, price, finance, currency, international trade are taken as the internal factors that have relation with alteration of GDP. Above all, we establish the regressive equation to analyze the fluctuations of these factors how to influence the whole economic fluctuations.Chapter six establishes the model of external impact and internal transmit to reveal the origin of Hebei Province economic fluctuations. Especially, the core causality chain of economic system made up of demand, production, income, and outcome will act upon the economic fluctuations independently even without the outer impact. Three features of its movement are chain-reaction, se lf-accumulate, se lf-transact, these determine the basic character of Hebei conomic fluctuations. The efect of the mechanism of internal transact is becoming stronger while external impact's contribution is becoming weaker.Economic fluctuation is not only a key theoretical question in macroeconomics but also a great practice question closely related to actual life. It is a very important but very difficult work to measure, analyze and predict it. Today it is a work with more challenge to measure and analyze the new changes that appear in economic fluctuations accurately. Seeing that I have limited ability, the analysis and conclusion of some chapters can only be trying and exploratory in the article, which also needs inspection in the future and further revision and perfection with future economic development.