| Agriculture is the basic industry of the national economy,and it is especially important for a developing country with a huge population like China.It is not only related to food security,but also to the livelihood of the majority of farmers,and directly affects the achievement of macroeconomic goals.In the context of the global economic slowdown and the impact of the epidemic,in the critical period of the closing of the 13 th Five-Year Plan and the opening of the 14 th Five-Year Plan,and when the Chinese economy is in the "new normal" and facing many new challenges,it is important for China to develop its food security industry.In the critical period of the closing of the 13 th Five-Year Plan and the beginning of the 14 th Five-Year Plan,when China's economy is facing new challenges in the "new normal",it is of great practical significance to study the correlation between agricultural economic development and China's macroeconomic operation,and how to effectively balance the correlation between promoting agricultural modernization and medium and high economic growth.In this paper,to study the intrinsic influence and mechanism between agricultural economic development and macroeconomic operation,we use VAR,nonlinear MS(M)-AR(p),and nonlinear MS(M)-VAR(p)models to investigate the correlation between agricultural economic development and macroeconomic operation in China,taking the data of Chinese agricultural prices,Chinese agricultural economic development and macroeconomic operation as samples.The models are used to measure the correlation between China's agricultural economic development and macroeconomic performance.Agricultural price indices can affect macroeconomic growth in four specific cases with first-,second-,third-,and fourth-order lags,in both direction and degree dimensions.In most cases,the shock response of China's agricultural production price index level to the time series of GDP growth rate is maintained at a positive level;the variance decomposition indicates that the time series of China's agricultural production price index level tends to contribute to a lesser extent to the time series impact of GDP growth rate.The time series of production price index cycle components of China's agricultural products also affects the time series of the cycle components of China's GDP growth rate in two dimensions,namely direction and degree,under four specific circumstances with first,second,third and fourth order lags.The variance decomposition finds that the contribution of the time series of the cyclical component of China's agricultural production price index to the time series of the cyclical component of China's GDP growth rate is significant.The degree of contribution of China's GDP growth rate cyclical component time series to the impact of China's plantation,livestock agricultural products and overall agricultural production price index level cyclical component time series tends to be smaller,while the degree of contribution to the impact of China's forestry and fishery agricultural production price index level cyclical component time series is larger.The study of the growth cycle paths of China's agricultural economy and macroeconomy shows that the probability of shifting the growth regime of China's total agricultural output and China's GDP is basically the same,but the growth paths of the four sectors of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery vary;the probability of maintaining China's total agricultural output in all regimes is high;when it is in the "medium growth regime",it is not easy to achieve a shift to higher growth rates.The probability of maintaining China's agricultural output in each sector is high;it is not easy to change to a higher growth rate when it is in the "medium growth sector",but it is not easy to decline sharply when it enters the "medium growth sector" or the "fast growth sector".In other words,the agricultural economy has certain inertia characteristics and is not easy to change its growth status.China's economic development will tend to maintain a good growth trend if it successfully enters into a high growth rate,but once it falls into a low growth rate,it will face a very serious challenge of economic recovery.China's total agricultural output and China's GDP growth path are not fully synchronized.The study on the time-varying mechanism between agricultural development and economic performance found that: when the "agriculture and economy" system is in the "low growth regime",the growth rate of China's agricultural output is positively correlated with the growth rate of China's GDP;when When the "agriculture and economy" system is in the "fast growth regime",the growth rate of China's agricultural output has a stronger positive correlation with the growth rate of China's GDP;and when the "agriculture and economy" system is in the "medium growth regime",the growth rate of China's agricultural output has a stronger positive correlation with the growth rate of China's GDP.When the "agriculture and economy" system is in the "medium growth regime",the growth rate of China's agricultural output has a weak negative correlation with the growth rate of China's GDP.When the system of "agriculture and economy" is in the "medium growth regime",the growth rate of China's agricultural output is least likely to have a weak negative relationship with China's GDP growth rate,and the persistence is weakest when the system of "agriculture and economy" is in the "medium growth regime",while the system of "agriculture and economy" is in the "low growth regime".When the "agriculture and economy" system is in the "low growth regime" or "fast growth regime",the growth rate of China's agricultural output is more likely to have a significant positive relationship with the growth rate of China's GDP and is more persistent.When the "agriculture and economic volatility" system is in the low volatility regime,the growth rate of China's agricultural output is positively correlated with the volatility of China's GDP growth;when the "agriculture and economic volatility" system is in the medium volatility regime,the growth rate of China's agricultural output is also positively correlated with the volatility of China's GDP growth.When the "agriculture and economic volatility" system is in the medium volatility regime,the growth rate of China's agricultural output is also positively correlated with the volatility of China's GDP growth;and when the "agriculture and economic volatility" system is in the high volatility regime,the growth rate of China's agricultural output has a stronger positive correlation with the volatility of China's GDP growth.When the system of "agriculture and economic volatility" is in the high volatility regime,the growth rate of China's agricultural output is least likely to have the strongest positive relationship with the volatility of China's GDP growth,while the system of "agriculture and economic volatility" is in the medium-low volatility regime,the growth rate of China's agricultural output is least likely to have the strongest positive relationship with the volatility of China's GDP growth.When the "agriculture and economic volatility" system is in the medium to low volatility regime,the growth rate of China's agricultural output is more likely to be positively correlated with the volatility of China's GDP growth and is more persistent.The innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)The results of this paper show that both the agricultural price time series and the agricultural price volatility time series have long memory characteristics,and this study fills the academic gap in the related field.(2)In the study on the impact of price volatility of agricultural products on macroeconomic growth,we take agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry,fishery and the overall agricultural production price index as the sample,which excludes the limitation of previous studies that only selected individual agricultural products as the sample,and complements the previous studies,and the research object and scope are innovative.(3)This paper uses Markov shift model to distinguish the growth cycle paths of China's agricultural economy and macroeconomy into low-speed,medium-speed and high-speed regimes,and calculates the probability of shift,average duration and specific shift time among different regimes to analyze and judge the operation of China's agricultural economy and macroeconomy.(4)This paper introduces the research idea of studying financial issues into the study of agricultural economy,and uses MSM(M)-VAR(p)model to analyze the correlation between agricultural economic growth and macroeconomy in different operating states and different fluctuation states,which is innovative in terms of research methods.(5)The findings of this paper,namely the correlation between agricultural economic growth and macroeconomic growth in three different states of operation and three different states of fluctuation,fill the research gap in the related field and enrich and improve the academic system of the intrinsic influence and role between agricultural economic development and macroeconomic growth.Based on the above findings,this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations: First,when implementing price regulation of agricultural products,policy makers should first consider maintaining the stability of agricultural prices to avoid the increase of price uncertainty that increases social costs and impairs social welfare;at the same time,due to the long memory characteristics of agricultural prices,the cyclicality and effectiveness of the policy should be considered when implementing price regulation.Second,since the price level of agricultural products can affect macroeconomic growth,and the cyclical component of agricultural prices has a greater impact on the cyclical component of macroeconomic growth,the government should pay attention to and monitor the "garlic","beans","ginger" and other agricultural products.The government should pay attention to and monitor the abnormal price fluctuations of agricultural products such as "garlic","beans" and "ginger",and take effective measures to maintain the stability of agricultural prices to avoid affecting the stable development of the macro economy.Third,due to the weak nature of the agricultural economy and the strong correlation between agricultural policies and agricultural economic development,the Chinese government should continue to implement the agricultural support policies since 2004,especially strengthening the support for plantation,forestry and animal husbandry,except for fisheries.Fourth,due to the importance of agricultural economic development to the national economy and its strong positive correlation with macroeconomic growth,the government should strengthen the awareness that agriculture is the basic industry of the national economy,especially the awareness that the contribution of agricultural economic development to economic growth is no less important than that of export trade,and increase the support for agriculture.On the one hand,it can promote the development of agricultural economy and solve the unique "three rural problems" in China;on the other hand,it can add a new driving force for China's macroeconomic growth and solve the problem of long-term growth driving force of China's economy under the new normal.This paper includes 66 figures,46 tables,and 328 references. |
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