China's Economic Growth Volatility And Explain The Expansion Process

After 1978, China has undergone 4 whole rounds economic fluctuation. It is in ascending phase of the new round economic cycle now. To promote national economy continuous, quick and healthy development, we must analyze the main factors those affect Chinese long increasing and short fluctuation to make corresponding regulated policy.Oversea scholars can be divided into two groups-external-causeschool and internal-cause school. The former owes the fluctuation to some factors out of economic sysetem, however, the later think that the mutual effect between variables and economic structures. Though these views can explain the developed countries business cycle from different aspects, they lack persuasion to explain expansible fluctuation of China. Most of Chinese scholars consider fluctuation of investment as the primary cause and do much research on investment to explain the fluctuations from many profiles.Chinese economic fluctuations have turned from classical fluctuation to epexegesis fluctuation. After reform, the whole level of economy has greatly been improved. The national economy has enforced the capacity of resisting regression and it has been more stable. The economy is expansible fluctuation based on the great increase. There has been an exponential trendency in GDP, final consumption and investment of fixed assets. In this thesis , we discussed the station and effect of consumption and investment through the mixed method of quality and quantity.The empirical research results the contribution of final consumption is much more than that of the investment of fixed assets for the certain trendency of increase. Through the analysis of the residual, we find out there are the similitude in cycles between fixed assets and GDP, and the rebound of investment of fixed assets is the main cause of the fluctuation of GDP. Howover, the final consumption has a vital effect on economicstability. The fluctuation resulted from the expansion of investment has some causes such as the changes of population , popular construction , consume , industry constituent and uncontinuty of the macro-economy policy. The government must take effective measures to inform multiple investors on public establishment , make industry policy to improve its sustained development and upgrade, keep the policy continuity and insistent, improve the utility of resource by comprehensive methods to control the national economy.