The Quantitative Analysis And Case Research On Adjustment Of Industrial Structure Of Jiangsu

The adjustment of economic structure is forever subject of economic development. Based on multianalysis China industrial structure fundamental research achievement. The adjustment and optimize upgrade of industrial structure of Jiangsu is systemic studied. Base on analyze the each other tract of industrial structure and economic development of Jiangsu. The collectivity evaluation of the state of industrial structure of Jiangsu is made out. Firstly, via comparatively analyze industrial structure of Jiangsu: the percentage of secondary industry is high but tertiary industry is low. The percentage of secondary and tertiary employment is low, that cause the benefit of industry isn't highness. Secondly, the quantitative analysis shows that the growth of economy is effectively pulled by the secondary industries; the development of industry will enlarge the scale of production. So the long-term economic growth only comes from improving on efficiency of the secondary industries. Finally, The Granger causality test shows that there is one-way remarkable Granger causality from industrial structure and employment structure to GDP. FDI and the foreign trade is Granger causality the development of secondary and tertiary industry. The export is promoted by primary industry of Jiangsu.The analysis of industrial interior structure of Jiangsu. Firstly, the grey relational analysis shows that the important development of Jiangsu's Agriculture in turn: animal husbandry, farming, fishery and forestry. A farming trans-log production function is build. We find that the elasticity of productivity of the capital, labor and plantation three input factor is low. It illuminates that the position of food supplies security is austere. The transfer of rural surplus work force and farmer's income increase is difficulty of"three problems of agriculture". The adjustment of agriculture structure that should enclose construct socialism new country is put up. Secondly, via analyze the industrial structure of Jiangsu. The proportion of light and heavy industry go in reason. The competition advantage of manufacturing is evidence. But the mostly problem is faced with industrial structure and industrialization: the innovation lack in industrial structure; the development of regional industry is imbalance; depend on most energy sources. So the adjustment of Jiangsu's industry structure must select and cultivate leading industry; the development of new high- tech industry priority; bring into play superiority of region; advance the construct of Eco-industrial park, develop circular economy to promoted the development of economic. Finally, Thoroughly analyses service industry by grey econometric model, educes that the output flexibility of capital is more greater than labor's, but the boundary productivity of labor has tardiness ascend trend. The development of service industry accelerated by capital impulse and labor doughty effect of Jiangsu. Service industry should be encouraged to increase obtain employment, the reform should be quickened, import the mechanism of competition.Via select six norm of evaluate leading industries and grey fixed weight clustering model to positive analysis on selecting the leading industries in Jiangsu. The ordinary machinery, transportation equipment, telecommunications equipment manufacturing, computer and other electronic equipments etc are the leading industry. Base on comparatively analysis status of new high- tech industry in Jiangsu, trans-log production function is build to study. It scale reward is highness. The information industry impact on the economic growth has rapidly boosted up. The informative process merge of industry will benefit to accelerate the upgrading and reconstruction in traditional industry, promote the industry productivity. There is one-way remarkable granger causality relationship from venture investment to new high-tech industrial development. So, must create favorably run environment for develop venture investment that stimulates the development of new high-tech industry. Put forward new high-techn industry must wend the route of circular economy.The indexes system of regional industrial structure is set up. Aim at the characteristic of the evaluation of industry structure. A sort of comparatively reasonable utility evaluation model is set up. Jiangsu and other six Province and City as example is positive analyzed, that truly reflects the fact of the regional industry structure. The combination forecast model of ARMA(p,q) and GM(1,1) model is proposed, it has more prediction precision, the difficult problem of industrial structure prediction is availability settled. Jiangsu's industrial structure is predicted by combined prediction model.The thought and measure of"eleven five"adjustment of industrial structure is put forwarded. That provide gist for decision-making of adjustment of industrial structure of Jiangsu.