Imitating Research On Developing Periods Of Cyclic Economics

The research and estimate of cyclic economics have four backgrounds: 1. for a long time, China continue the tra litional developing model, which is based on the price of resources and quality. 2. the middle of 21^st century will be a crucial time for China, when we will achieve the third-step strategy and high economic growth. 3. We face a serious environmental problem, worsen than any industry country's, and this has become a big limitation to our economic development. 4. Cyclic economics has been listed into the < the 11^th five years' plan> and two restraining target have been raised as the pollution and resources loss caused by 1,000, 0 GDP.To know the developing period and its characteristics we have to do an analysis on the level of today's cyclic economics. Without that analysis we can not make a scientific plan including the model and target to develop cyclic economics. So, our research is targeted on recognizing the level of today's cyclic economics and the researching methodology of cyclic economics.Our research has three main points. 1, how to divide the developing periods of cycli economics in a dynamic economics system? 2, how to establish the analyzing framework of cyclic economics? 3, to estimate the developing period of cyclic economics based on demonstrative research. The innovation of our research: 1, the new methodology: on researching the relationship of resources and development in an economical system, we adopt the ecological way of model establishment. 2, from the angle of systematic theory, we try to imitate the dynamic development of cyclic economics based on the imitating technology. 3, we do research on the estimating dimensions of cyclic economics, which will be the base of evaluating regional cyclic economics.The main conclusions: 1 .compared to the economics development, pollution has a delay of one fourth cycle. 2. Kuznets environmental reverse U curve is only a part of the society development, the whole picture are made of a set of continuous reverse U curves.3.the self-clear function of the ecological system will be weakened as the developing of the economics, as a result, the developing space is reduced. 4, the major points of cyclic economics depend on the developing period. 5, the protection of resources and environment can not overall the developing period of the region. Because of the different developing levels, different regions have its own appropriate methods.