Study Of The Fluctuation Of Urban Residential Market And Its Correlative Policies To Modulate

In the field of real estate, measurement and analysis of the fluctuation of the real estate market has become very much a pioneering research issue. As an important component of the property market, the fluctuation of urban residential real estate market can have significant impact on the society, the economy, and many families. Studying its fluctuation is either the requirement of real estate management in practice, or the requirement of maintaining a stable and healthy development of the residential real estate and its relevance industry. It is necessary to draw up the correlative policies to modulate on urban residential market. It plays an important role in the theory and in practice.Based on a review of its current condition and development home and abroad, the thesis systematically expounds some achievements in the theory and the methodology about the fluctuation of urban residential real estate market.In this thesis the relationship between the variable of the fluctuation of urban residential real estate market and macroeconomic variable and real estate economic variable is proposed and discussed successfully. Based on the collected economic data in China, and theory about the relationship between the variable of the fluctuation of urban residential real estate market and general economic conditions, indexes associated with the fluctuation of urban residential real estate market have been designed by adapting to the data analysis method. The relationship between the variable of the fluctuation and economic variable has been discussed quantitatively by Granger causality test. A case has been applied in China and some proposes have been introduced.This thesis also proposes a method of the analysis on the fluctuation of urban residential real estate market, based on the discussion about the overall rate. On the foundation of the residential real estate market dynamics theory, the arithmetic and the testing models about analyzing the fluctuation of urban residential real estate market have been dissertated. By means of the model, the scope and the potential of the fluctuation can be making sure. The difference between the real cycle and the apparent cycle of residential real estate market can be distinguished.Two kinds of models by estimating pool equations and panel estimation have been constructed. Based on the idea of Reduced Form Model, by adopting lags-adjustment or not, time-series dynamics models of the fluctuation of urban residential real estate market, in which the endogenetic and the exogenous sensitive variable include, have been estimated. In logarithmic form the models are applied in a case. On the other hand, the fluctuation dynamics equations of residential real estate market by means of panel data have been estimated. The models have been applied in 15 cities of China.The concept and the arithmetic of Urban Residential Real Estate market Integration Boom Index (BI) have been dissertated in this thesis. Based on the prosperity index method and the suitable improvement to the calculation method of the diffusion index, the concept of"comparison of the precision",including the diffusion index ( DI ) and the composite index (CI ),has been introduced. Residential Real Estate market Integration Boom Index can be dissertated by means of comparing the precision of the two indexes ( DI andCI ) in order to eliminate the contradiction between the two indexes.According to the theory and the methodology of fluctuation measurement of urban residential real estate market in this thesis, there is a guidance to develop the early warning system of urban real estate market fluctuation successfully. This system has passed the appraisal in 2004.