Research On The Theories And Demonstration Of Real Estate Market Fluctuation

After more than ten years of rapid development, the real estate has been animportant economic status in china. It not only has forward and behind driverelationship of many associated industries, but also has a strong impact on personlife. So the real estate market fluctuation influences the develop and progress of thewhole society.The article applies time series model to analyzing real estate marketfluctuation composition；dissecting the influencing factors, fluctuation mechanism,fluctuation effect of real estate market; describing Shenyang real estate marketfluctuation, finding the law of Shenyang real estate market, and putting forwardcountermeasures and suggestions. It is given step by step in following sixchapters：Chapter1concentrates on the research background, objective and significance,gives a general idea of the research on this subject both abroad and at home andintroduces the structure, innovate and research methods of the essay.Chapter2summarizes real estate market fluctuation theory. Firstly definesreal estate market fluctuation connotation, sort and basic theory, and then dividesinto long waves, period fluctuation, seasonal fluctuation and random fluctuation;analyzing these fluctuations’ form and metering method.Chapter3analyses source, external and internal factors of real estate market;discusses on fluctuation mechanism and the influence on national economy,associated industries and social development Chapter4basing on the Shenyang real estate market, describes its wave formfrom Single index and Synthesis index; uses time series model to resolve Shenyangreal estate market, and determining quantificational the range of Shenyang realestate market fluctuation.Chapter5offers some proposals that establishing the goals of real estate stableand healthy development and real estate market guard line model, strengtheningregulation and management of market demand, completing institutional building oflow-income housing, increasing the real estate market monitor and perfecting realestate related policy.Chapter6makes a conclusion and some research prospect, points out thedeficiencies and puts forward the next step of research direction.Conclusion and innovation of this paper are that the real estate marketfluctuation is imbalance of supply and demand, real estate market fluctuationmechanism are internal transmission mechanism and external impact mechanism,influencing factors are internal character and economy and political, the effect ofreal estate market fluctuation are national economy, associated industry and socialdevelopment；it calculates the period of Shenyang real estate market fluctuation isabout six or seven years, and the season volatility factors is6%,13%,47%,64%,101%,190%,115%,120%,187%,115%,112%and130%.