Measurement And Game Analysis On The Dynamic Effect Between The Credit Loan And Market Of The Real-estate

Since1978, China has experienced a long-last period of an unprecedenteddevelopment with the reform and opening up policy. During the decades, the realestate market of China also appeared a trend of rapid expansion, especially after theAsian financial crisis in1998. From then on, the housing system of China hasreformed. In order to stimulate the economy, the welfare housing distribution systemwas transformed into a market-oriented system and the real estate industry has gaineda golden period of development. But the prosperity of the real estate market is adouble-edged sword. The development is accompanied with high house prices andmarket bubbles. Moreover, the financing channels of real estate market are mainlycontrolled by banks and the real estate loans also constitute a important part of thetotal bank loans, partly for the reason that the investment of real estate industryusually has a large scale and long cycle. The real estate loan is not only a factor thataffects the real estate prices, but also affects the supply and demand. The real estatedevelopment loans are the main influence factors in terms of the supply of real estatemarket, while the individual mortgage loans are directly affected by the housingconsumption of individuals. Analysis of the intrinsic mechanism between the realestate loans and the real estate market could partly answer the question on how tomaintain the stability of the financial market of real estate.In this paper, through the combination of theoretical research and empirical test,the author studied the dynamic relations between the real estate credit and real estatemarket. After reviewing and summarizing the related literature on the interpretation ofthe real estate market and credit, this paper expounded some related theories. Afterthat, this article then carried out an empirical test based on the VAR model from theperspective of supply, demand and price of real estate market. Test results show thatthe relationship between the real estate loans and real estate is complicated. Theresults pointed out the importance of the role of government. Then, by using thedynamic game model, the paper discussed the game among real estate developmententerprise, individual consumers, banks and the government. Finally, under the view that the real estate market development is guided by the government, relatedsuggestions are given at the last part of the paper.