Research On The Endowment Insurance Fund's Balance Government Liability Between Receipt And Expenditure And Countermeasure In China

With the impact from population's aging on endowment insurance, the research pertaining to providing for the aged has been becoming one of the hot issues among academic organizations and policy-making agencies. Based on the material foundation of pension fund -how to keep pension fund balanced, this paper lays particular emphasis on studying governmental responsibility on the pension fund balance, the decision factors of the pension fund balanced budget, the measure of keeping fund balance, and provides theories basis for the government undertaking responsibility and establishing some related policies.To study balance problem of the basic endowment insurance fund in China, the first problem we need to know is that the Implicit Pension Debt obvious and its scales caused by pension system's transition from "Pay-As-You-Go" to "Partiially-Funded" System.The Implicit Pension Debt is calculated by terminate hypothesis method: assumed that the "pay-as-you-go" pension system terminated immediately, computing all annuitant and employee's pension rights, but not take account of the possible new obligation or income from pay or interest in the future, and then an actuarial model of Implicit Pension Debt is constructed. Based on relative researches of others' the paper calculates the scale of Implicit Pension Debt at the beginning of 2005.Pension fund's pay ability will produce very important influence on a nation or a region's economic development, society stability and government decisions. According to the relevant policy-partially funded system in China, mathematics model of endowment insurance fund's balance between receipt and expenditure is constructed. Based on the model constructed, the paper simulates the pension fund receipt and expenditure's evolvement status in the existing condition during the target period, and points out the tremendous payment risk of the actual system.By analyzing the basis and scope of governmental responsibility, we have got following findings: governmental responsibility in the basic pension insurance is making up fund gap from Implicit Pension Debt, social pooling, personal account because of longevity, lost investment and system's error etc. Therefore we can also say, the governmental responsibility in the basic pension insurance equals the fund gap after the business enterprise and the personal having implemented the pay fee obligation of rule. Based on relative researches of others' and on the circumstances of relative system simultaneity, the paper develops the current models by generalizing and specializing their use. Furthermore, the paper goes on research to incorporate and quantify governmental responsibilities on fund balance of endowment insurance in the model. According to the relevant policy in China and the factor of tax evasion, inflation and governmental liabilities, a mathematics model of endowment insurance fund's balance between receipt and expenditure is constructed.Iit can simulate the scale of the government's liabilities in a certain target period. Furthermore, the paper carries on sensitive analysis about the main influence parameter and studies the influence degree on fee income, benefit and government's liabilities from the parameter's fluctuation. The results show that the sensitive degree of the pension substitution rate is the most strongest in the controlled parameter which influence the government obligation, followed by the retire population growth rate, the collect contribution rate, and the contribution population growth rate. Thus we can adjust these parameters which are sensitive and can adjusted to lower government's obligation reasonably through policy change.To solve the problem of pension fund balance that means increasing the fund income and decreasing the fund expenditure for cutting the government debt possibly. The endowment insurance fund equilibrium strategies are mainly founded on the parameter sensitive of endowment insurance fund balance between receipt and expenditure in this paper. According to the basic parameter hypothesis which matches relevant policy in China, the paper finds out the main controlled factors which policy can easily adjust, and arguments these measure's maneuverability in the reality, we conclude the 4 main measures of adjusting parameter, these are: lower the pension substitution rate, raise retirement age for reducing the retire population growth rate, increase the collect contribution rate in tax method, extend endowment insurance overlay to increase the contribution population growth rate. According to the different strategy combinations and simulations, we conclude the careful and optimism results. Therefore we can prove that it is possible effectively avoiding the pension payment crisis in the future, if the government immediately reform now.