China's Pension System Actuarial Evaluation In The Context Of An Aging Population

With the development of aging of population,pension insurance system in China is challenged severely.Promoting basic pension insurance and cooperate pension system is the key point of socialism construction.Three-pillar pension system is carried out in China,basic pension insurance system,cooperate pension system and individual saving endowment.The objective of this paper is making actuarial evaluation to current pension insurance system under the circumstances of aging of population in order to provide suggestions to reformation of pension insurance system in China.The main content is as follows.Using Lee-Carter model and grey relational grad method to simulate the mortality and fertility rate separately,and estimating the development of the urban population,and further forecasting the population of employees and retirees covered by the pension insurance system in the future,make actuarial evaluation of the basic pension insurance fund balance,implicit pension debt and individual substitute rate of cooperate pension.The main conclusion is that the aging population will bring severe pressure to the fund balance of pension insurance system,make the implicit pension debt obvious when reforming and cooperate pension is more effective in aspect of raising retiree's income.Additionally,comparing to the static population data,using the dynamic data is more reasonable when evaluating the risk exposed at the time of current pension insurance system reform.