A Study On The Model And Simulation Of Pension Insurance Of Beijing

With the development of aging of population and the changing of population structure, pension insurance system in China is challenged severely. Promoting the construction of basic pension insurance system has become the important issue of socialism construction. Beijing, as one of the most serious population aging cities, population change has become one of the main risks of pension fund gap and is producing a great impact on pension system in Beijing.The objective of this paper is making actuarial evaluation to current pension insurance system under the circumstance of aging of population in order to provide suggestions to pension insurance policy of Beijing and even reformation of pension insurance system in China. The main content is as follows. Using Logistic model to fit the registered population and floating population in Beijing respectively and then predict the trends situation of population of Beijing in the next few years. Then using grey relational grad method to simulate the fertility rate and on this basis estimating the situation of population age structure in Beijing. In addition, calculating the replacement rate and analyzing sensitivity under China’s current pension system. Finally, calculating and simulating the pension insurance fund balance situation in Beijing, and analyzing the effect of the retirement age and pension fund investment returns on the pension insurance fund balance.The main conclusion is listed as follows. The obvious trend of population aging in Beijing is bringing enormous pressure on the basic pension insurance fund balance. The gap of basic pension insurance fund is more sensitive to the retirement age, so raising the retirement age appropriately will help balance the income and payment of pension insurance fund. The low rate of investment return of pension fund has influenced the value of pension funds seriously. Under the premise of ensuring steady investment, broadening the investment channels of basic old-age insurance fund and exploring appropriate investment portfolio will help increase pension fund value.