Study On Enterprise Strategic Risk Distinguishing, Appraising And Dynamic Early Warning

The strategic risk is the main risk type in enterprise produces which affects comprehensively the enterprise sustainable development and the survival crisis. How to distinguish, appraise and control strategic risk is the core question to which the enterprise strategy director pays attention. At present, Strategic Management theory still is short of the systematic research in this field. This article mainly did the following work according to the risk management process:(1) This article proposed a systemic frame for the strategic risk forming mechanism. It analyzed the non-balanced process pattern from the environment uncertainty and organization adjustment ability which the strategic risk forms,and analyzing the strategic risk exterior natures from industrial structure, industrial position, industry evolvement and industry cooperation. It also analyzed enterprise longitudinal boundary decision-making risk and the crosswise boundary decision-making risk from the Transaction Cost Theory, Resource Base View, Uncertainty Theory and Strategical Cooperation Theory. This article has established the resources position theoretical model and the strategic risk phase transition process pattern initially.(2) According to Kaplan's strategic map and Potter's value chain, this article proposed four bottleneck Strategic Risk Map(SEP) based on the environment, the resources, the flow and the strategic. According to the SRM structure, this article proposed the strategic risk latent influence factor supposition from exterior industrial market environment, resources ability, organization, operation flows and strategic ability. Throughout the regression analysis, this article distinguished key risk factors that have the regression significance, including 4 systematic risk factors for industrial market environment and 23 non-systematic risk factors for the strategic property, the knowledge innovation, the organization manages, the strategic operation, strategic ability and so on.(3) Using the Structure Equation Model (SEM) method, this article has analyzed the relationship between the strategic risk factors and the risk consequences. According to the Preliminary Fit criteria, Overall Model Fit and Fit of Internal Structure of Model, this article has carried on the fitting examination to the overall model, and has carried on the way effectiveness analysis and the identically equal examination. (4) According to three typical strategic risk characteristics in competitiveness, survivability and growing, this article appraised the strategic risk from the risk possibility and the risk consequence. Took the absolute income change and the relative competitive advantage change as the risk consequence, and the latent risk factor as the risk possibility, this article has established the three dimensional strategy risk assessment model. The combination assessment method is used in strategic risk assessment based on Rough Sets in this article.(5) According to control chart early warning thought in the quality management and the econometrics VARMA model, this article proposes VARMA-EWMA dynamic risk warning model based on the time series datas. Using our country listed companies financial data, this article has carried on the risk early warning real diagnosis analysis, and analyzing contrastively with the CUSUM model, MDA model and Logit model.