On Behalf Of The Built Risk Management Based On Early Warning Theory

The practice of agent-construction system has been playing an active role in improving the management skill and increasing the benefit of government project. But in agent-construction system, the management risks nearly transfer to the agency all together. And short of pertinent law and system aggravates this further. Meanwhile light of risk consciousness and lagging of risk administration is a common phenomenon among agencies. Consequently, this dissertation tries to study on administration mode of agent risk based on early warning theory and probe effective approach to evade risks, thus provide theory references to improve the management ability of the agency.This dissertation builds a frame for agent risk administration based on early warning theory, which includes two parts. One is structure frame, dividing the whole management activity into three modules and reflecting the main content and route of agent risk management. The other is technological process frame, reflecting operating mechanism and interrelations of the modules. Also the structure frame is composed by three logic modules: agent risk identification module, risk appraisal module and risk responding module.First, use the method of RBS to analyze agent risk thoroughly in three dimensions, that is, system, goals and phases of the project.Second, choose risks that agency may experience in the life-circle of the project to form early warning index system preliminarily, and use the method of improved AHP to optimize it. Then methods of extension evaluation and gray conjunction analysis are applied to build risk appraisal module which could measure grade of risks and set down corresponding signals.Third, put forwards tactics to evade agent risk, such as Countermeasures responding to different grade of risk, ways to manage risk steadily and supporting system of risk management. The first one is plan made according to early warning results. The second one is capable of tracking and finding out relevant factors and portents, then monitor and control risks in the entire process. The last one points out qualifications and measures to manage risks in terms of information, organization and culture.Finally, applies the administration model of agent risk to a demonstration study to verify its practicality and rationality.