| Housing is one of the most important issues in every nation. Aiming at helping the low-income people, housing provident system, the core of policy housing finance, was built to solve the problem. The performance of this system will indicate the situation of housing security of the low -income people, and show strong influence on the stability of society. The balance of housing provident demand and supply was concerning about funds' increment and system's sustainability. When housing provident funds' supply surpasses that of demand, or funds was deposited in bank, the funds were facing the risk of depreciation. At this time, the deposit funds should be properly utilized to increase. So successful investing operation with this part of deposit funds was of great importance. When housing provident funds' demand surpasses that of the supply, proper solutions should be launched to keep the system's sustainability.This paper engaged the research works in the following aspects:(1) SD theory was introduced to analyze the system of housing provident, and a system model was suggested.With regard to the influential social & economic factors of the system, some important factors' influences to the system were carefully examined. Then provident system was suggested, the relationships between the subsystems and layers were examined. With studying the feedback of this system, the way that provident balance changes was analyzed.(2) System Dynamics method was introduced to establish and analyze housing provident balance.At first, a SD model of housing provident system was construnted to forcast the balance of the provident. Then the research was carried out in the construction of housing provident system and its sub-system, the relations and feedback between important factors and variations. Then the functions of the related variations were suggested, and the parameter was calculated, then the test of validity was executed. Finally situation of provident demand & supply was imitated and forecasted.(3) Countermeasure study in the situation of provident supply surpassing demand.At first, investment being limited to governmental bonds, it leads to the poorperformance of provident funds' inveatment. Then in the housing provident dynamic non-linear decision model, Markowitz's Theory of Assets Portfolio and Sharpe's Theory of Assets Pricing were introduced. Compared with the pension system, more invesyment methods were suggested, and a principle of quntitive supervision was also suggested. Finally, many supporting conditions should be ready step by step.(4) Countermeasure study in the situation of provident demand surpassing supply.In case of deficits in housing provident, countermeasure analysis was conducted from the different angles of supply, demand and institution innovation. Data imitation was executed to verify the efficiency and feasibility of different countermeasures.Qualitative analysis was adopted to value the feasibility of countermeasure by data imitation. The conclusions were as followed: it's no use raising Employee of gathered housing provident (EGHP) to meet the gap of provident supply & demand; housing provident deficits would be alleviated by raising Gathered rate from employee (GRE) or Period before loan (PBL), but the tendency would never change; by reducing Amount of housing provident loan per person (AHPLPP), the housing provident would keep sufficient supply, however, the coverage of provident loan would be shrink; only the institution innovation would settle this problem totally. The suggested institution innovations would be a policy of high interest rate in deposit and low in loan in housing provident system in the future; and it should introduce the Mortgage-back Securitization (MBS) to make this system more open to the capital market. Finally, a concept of institutional innovation was suggested to handle the situations both "supply surpassing demand" and "demand surpassing supply".
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