The Simulation Of Housing Demand On Residential Land In Hangzhou Based On System Dynamics

Since the housing system reform in 1998, the real estate is contiously prosperous. The average housing price has rised from 3278 yuan per square meter to 5396 yuan per square meter. The rapidly rising housing price not only made the real estate developing quickly, but also made the common people can't afford it. One of the reasons that induced the housing price rapidly rising is the non-saturated residential land supply. Although the macro-regulation in 2005 has made the housing price become stable, keeping the residential land supply rationally is still the fountain of making the real estate development sustainable. After investigating the factors that influence the housing demand, the paper simulates the housing demand on residential land in Hangzhou which is based on system dynamics. The result of the simulation will provide a good suggestion that make the residential land supply rationally.Firstly, basing on the housing demand theories and system dynamic theories, the paper explores the main factors affecting the housing demand, than it establishes an emulation forecast model with system dynamics theory. The paper estimates the housing demand of main Hangzhou city in2004 to 2010.Secondly, basing on the focasting results, the paper adjusted the land, finance and population data and found the influence of these facts.In the end, the author explains some comment on the policy basing on the circumstance of real estate and the terms of results in the emulation.