The Statistical Study On The Impact Of China Financial Development On Economic Increase

The relationship between finance and economic increase has always been one of the hot issues in theoretical research and proof analysis. As one of the major factors affecting the economic increase, the significance of finance has been recognized commonly by many scholars. Especially in recent years the western scholars'research on the relationship between finance and economic increase hasn't been confined to developed countries only, but applied extensively to developing countries. Through continuous practical tests, the theory has shown the important guiding function in constructing economy and finance in developing countries. Therefore, to integrate the western's more mature theory with our country's actual situation to investigate the relationship between finance and economic increase in China, is not only the urgent need in our economic construction, but also providing the theoretical basis for the development of our financial system and adjustment of our financial structure. In view of this, there is an important theoretical value and practical significance to choose the subject of the effect of financial development on economic increase and discuss and study the issue from the perspective of statistics.Based on organizing, inducing and summarizing the economic increase theory, financial development theory as well as the macro-economic theory on the relationship between financial development and economic increase, this thesis makes an in-depth study and analysis on the relationship between financial development and economic increase in terms of theory and practical proof, and puts forwards the corresponding suggestions on policy in light of the current status and existing problems in our financial development.In theory, it put forwards the internal relationship between financial development and economic increase and their transmitting route. On the basis of this, then it expands Barro's model of public commodities served by the productive government according to the basic idea of the theory of intrinsic economic increase, incorporates financial development into the model, and constructs the framework of the theoretical analysis of relationship between financial development and economic increase. The theoretical studying result proves that, financial development plays a positive role in promoting economic increase. The theoretical analysis framework of financial development and economic increase outlines the route of function and platform of policy of financial development on economic increase, and reveals the internal relationship between financial development and economic increase.Based on the transmitting route of financial development on economic increase and its relevant theoretical analysis framework, it discusses the financial factors influencing the economic increase and constructs the index system reflecting various factors accordingly, makes proof study on the function of financial development on economic increase from the national and regional level by applying metrological models.When studying the national level, it divides the financial development in broad and narrow sense. Financial development in narrow sense only considers the financial intermediaries, whereas financial development in broad sense covers not only the financial intermediaries, but also securities markets.When analyzing the effect of financial development on economic increase in narrow sense, it chooses such variables as the degree of financial development, the ratio of investment conversion, the percentage of medium and long-term loans and the real interest rate, to test the radical units, analyze on coordinating correction and construct the Vector Error Correction Model. The result of proof shows that, there is a long-term steady balanced increase between the increase of our real GDP per capita or the increase of nominal GDP per capita and financial development. Because the index of degree of financial development is a counter index to show the financial counter efficiency, it makes comparative explanation from the perspective of scales. The ratio of investment conversion will have a positive effect on long-term GDP per capita, the ratio of medium and long-term loans to total loans will have a positive effect on the increase of GDP per capita, the real interest rate will have a negative effect on the real GDP per capita. But the degree of effect varies, owing to the existence of price factors.When analyzing the effect of financial development on economic increase in broad sense, it applies plural linear regression to study the strength of influence and the direction of function of financial variables on economic increase. The result shows that, there is a stronger correlativity between the selected individual index and the ratio of economic increase. The degree of financial development has a negative effect on economic increase, the ratio of investment conversion and reliance of stock markets have a positive effect on the ratio of economic increase, the real interest rate has a negative effect on economic increase. According to the degree of effect on the ratio of economic increase, the reliance of stock markets comes first, followed by the real interest rate, the ratio of investment conversion and the degree of financial development.When analyzing the regional level, it chooses the plural linear regressive equation to analyze the effect of the degree of financial development, the ratio of loan increase and the real interest rate on the ratio of real GDP per capita. The studying result shows that, there is a stronger correlativity between the selected index and the ratio of economic increase, i.e. the degree of financial development plays a negative role, with the western region affected most, followed by the middle region and the eastern region; the ratio of loan scale increase plays a positive promoting role, with the middle region promoting most, followed by the western region and the eastern region; the real interest rate plays a role in hindering the economic increase, with the western region influenced most, followed by the eastern region and the middle region.Based on the result of theoretical analysis and the conclusion of practical proof analysis in the relationship between financial development and economic increase, it puts forward several reasonable suggestions on policy in terms of financial reform.The thesis enriches and expands the existing relevant research content in terms of the following aspects:First, it expands the model of public commodities served by the productive government in the theory of intrinsic economic increase, incorporates financial development into the model, and constructs the framework of the theoretical analysis of relationship between financial development and economic increase by subjecting to the production function of practical producing sectors and the efficiency function of financial sectors and governmental sectors, and targeting at the maximum of the whole society's consuming availability.Second, according to economic theory and theoretical analysis framework, it discusses the financial factors influencing economic increase, and screens the index system to reflect the various factors. The narrow financial development indexes are the degree of financial development, the ratio of investment conversion, the percentage of medium and long -term loans and real interest rate. The broad financial development indexes are the degree of financial development, the ratio of investment conversion, the percentage of medium and long -term loans , real interest rate and the ratio of equity financing in stock markets to GDP.Third, it studies the long-term equilibrium between financial development and economic increase, as well as the steady equilibrium by dynamic adjustment in the short term around the long-term equilibrium, by way of applying the coordinating correction analysis and the Vector Error Correction Model. Based on this, it analyzes the influence and function of financial development on regional economic increase.Fourth, it chooses GDP deflator as the explained variable and the index of financial development as the explaining variable to discuss the degree of effect of financial factors on price and analyzes the function route.