Research Of China's Grain Supply-Demand Balance

Grain is valuable resource for human survival, is the essential commodity for people's livelihood. Our country is a developing one with lots of people but scarce of arable land, and wants to use 7 percent world's arable land to feed 22 percent world's population. Therefore, solving food problem is not merely an economic problem, but also is a matter of political and social stability, the country's long-term stability.The paper combines with present food consumption and production, collects data, sets up food demand and supply models, predicts the amounts of grain's supply and demand,and then studies country's food supply-demand balance problem and food security issues more systematically, which may offer some references. Analysis is along the following lines: firstly, grain will be divided into ration, feed grain, industrial grain, seed grain and the loss in accordance with food's specific use, and establish models separately according to the consumption data. Second, there are some reasons such as agricultural policy causing food production instability, the outputs are in large fluctuations. So I use the gray system theory which can weaken random changes, set up prediction model. Thirdly, I analyze the future food supply-demand balance, and carry out some recommendations to ensure the food supply-demand balance.From the research, I have gained conclusions as follows: through the relevant index model of prediction for future food demand, the future food consumption will be still showing high growth. Food production will be improved through Gray system model's prediction; China's grain output is expected to exceed 600 million tons in 2018. Through food demand -supply analysis, we can see that our food can basically achieve supply -demand balance. In the medium or long term, the trend will be tight balance, the gap of supply and demand will arise, but we can guarantee food safety through inventory and imported food implementation.