The Study Of The Nonlinear Prediction And 3G Orintented Development Strategy Of The Tianjin Mobile Market

Focused on the Tianjin mobile communication market, the thesis analyzed and predicted the two key factors of the market such as telephone traffic demand and telephone users. Furthermore, the upcoming 3G operation was discussed and the end users of the 3G in the whole world were forecasted. Based on the analyzing of the macro and industrial environment, the developing strategy of the Tianjin Mobile Communication Corporation (TMCC) was proposed.With analyzing present status of the Tianjin mobile market and using the chaos theory, the thesis researched the chaotic properties of the day and week telephone traffic demand. We calculate the embedding dimension, the delay time and max Lyapunov index. Using the max Lyapunov index method and local prediction method of chaotic time series, the day and week telephone traffic demand were predicted.Based on the analysis of the economic development and the trend of the population increase in Tianjin, we used the trend extrapolation method, growth curve method and stochastic gradient regression method to predict the total mobile telephone users from 2007 to 2010 in Tianjin. Results show that the growth rate of the total mobile telephone users will keep high and the growth rate of user will surpass 95%.Based on the analysis of the global 3G operation, using the support vector machine method, the different global 3G operation end users were predicted. The total amount of the 3G user will increase in future, but the proportion of different user type will change greatly. The proportion of CDMA20001xEV-DO users will be 20%, and the WCDMA and CDMA2000 1x users will be 33% and 46% respectively.Last we discussed the development environment of the TMCC, and proposed the developing strategy and the suggestion for the company's sustainability.