Chinese Economy After The Rapid Growth Stage Of The Study

Our country's economy have got a rapid growth at a rate over 9.9 per cent for 29 years since the reform and opening up policy carried into cxecution from 1978 to 2007. If the economic growth rate not less than 10% in 2008, we will have a 30 years' economic rapid growth at a rate of more than 9.9 per cent, which will update the world's highest record created by Japan whose 29 years durative rapid growth at more than 9 percent after World War II. An active debate on the cold & hot economy was set off in China in 2005. Under the background of existing economy trends to overheating and the CPI keep increasing, a hot debate has been held by the scholars with optimistic opinions and the scholars with pessimistic opinions came from inland and overseas on economic hot & cold after 2008 Beijing Olympic Games in China. It is necessary to put aside the debate of the short-term economic cold or hot, and get an accurate judgement of China's long-term economic growth trend, understand China's current economic growth stage, then try to provide an objective basis for the correct judgement of macroeconomic trends and the formulation of macroeconomic policies.This dissertation summarized the economic growth stage theory and thought come from domestic and abroad. Over the empirical research on several national economic developmental practices, socialism scholars and Western economists have done a rich conclusion and summary on the economic growth stage from different perspectives. Although these partition standards of economic growth stage maybe not necessarily fit for China's status, the research on economic growth stage theory and ideas have an important reference to recognize and understand China's economic growth stage.This dissertation have done a further evaluation on the stage of China's economic growth stage, and analyses the characteristics of annual economic increase stage from an perspective of fluctuations in the economic cycle. From the vast land of China's 'big nation' in the context of economic development on the basis of uniqueness of China's economic growth, to judge the economic increase stage into which our country is about to enter, proposed the concept of our country's post-stage rapid growth which contains two meanings, first, that this will be a new stage in the continued growth after a 29 years durative increase at high-speed, and the second is the growth stage is also a high-growth stage as well. Through the theory related to our country's practice, the dissertation analyses of the probability of maintaining high-speed economic growth stage and the dynamic mechanism of keeping the post-stage rapid growth, and then through the forecast of China's potential output growth rate the dissertation give an objectively verification on the possibility of China's economy post-stage rapid growth.Firstly, analysis the necessity of China's entering the stage of post-stage rapid growth, Brezis-Krugman-Tsiddon leapfrogging model reveals that one country's economic growth has essential linkages with other countries & one State economic growth is in the state-to-state competition and mutual catching up with each other under the constraint. Post-developmental countries are able to 'catching up' the fore-developmental countries, while the leadership position may be 'lock in', and therefore form the alternative development history between the rising and falling. If it is revealed as gross economic increase, that shall be the phenomenon of alternative between my high you low and you high my low, which formed the cross development history of different economic increase stage between different countries. There are precedent successful examples such as the United States over-take the United Kingdom, Japan chase the United States and Asia's 'Four Little Dragons' catch up with Western European countries. The reform and opening up policy launched China's chasing journey, while the journey is far from the ending. China's entering into the post-stage rapid growth and the maintenance of the stage is the inevitable requirement of the competition between countries and China's peaceful rise.Secondly, analyses the maintaining motive factors of China's post-stage rapid growth from the perspective of the regional development. Economic growth pole theory reveals the effect of a growth pole model take in the regional economy and the economy as a whole. The meaning & effect & type & successful examples of the economic growth pole have been introduced in this dissertation, which were made to models, and then analyses & solute the models to verify the economic development pole enlightenment. China's regional non-balanced development strategy is the economic growth pole theory applied to China's concrete practice, the rapid development of the eastern coastal areas got benefit from economic growth pole theory of inspiration. There is a big different between China's region industrialization in the region and the level of the stage, which is the power of the post-stage rapid growth of China. The strategy implementation of Large-scale development of China's western region & revitalizing old industrial bases in northeast & central China growing up speed up the nurture of China's new economic growth pole which is the power of maintaining the post-stage rapid growth of China.In addition, the possibility of the post-stage rapid growth of China was verified through empirical estimation. Although in the short term, the actual economic growth always fluctuate around it's trend, showed fluctuations in the economy, which is the economy hot and cold, while in the long term, there is a specific growth path or growth trend in any of a country's economy. We can verify the possibility of post-stage rapid growth through measure and predict our country's potential output & potential output growth rate in a subsequent stage. The economic potential output theory and methodology were introduced in this dissertation, and the HP filter method & production function approach were applied to calculate China's potential output & potential output growth rate, and AR1MA model was further applied to forecast our country's potential output in the future, which objectively verified the possibility of our country's entering and maintaining high-speed increase stage.The views, arguments, conclusions were summarized in the last part of this dissertation, relevant policy recommendations on maintaining economic post-stage rapid growth were provided as well. Pointing out the imperfect in this dissertation will prospect the future thoughts and directions in research.Generally, there is a theoretical and practical basis for China's entering into and maintaining post-high-speed growth stage. Labour & Capital & Technology can be across moved between different regions under China's special status and 'big nation' background, and the gradual infiltration and radiation of prosperity will take among regions. In a longer period, China's economic growth will be set not only a particular one but many, which forming a economic structure of multi-polar growth point and multi-point release of 'energy' and forming 'when it is dark in the east, it is bright in the west' development pattern at rise one after another. There will be a post-stage rapid growth stage after a durative 29 years high-speed increases none economic stagnation phenomenon resulted from output decline in some areas.