Industrial Agglomeration And Distribution Of China's Manufacturing Industries

This dissertation aims to probe into the general mechanism of industry agglomeration and distribution under the background of globalization and, based on which, to analyze the evolution process of Chinese manufacturing industries and its distribution conditions. It investigates the determinants of industrial distribution and agglomeration, and calculates current centralized situations of China's manufacturing distribution, and testifies empirically both the influences of industrial concentration degree and the contribution of centralization situation to regional industry growth. The methodology adopted in this dissertation is to combine normative economic models with empirical analysis. In empirical study, the methodology includes Gini coefficient, the unit roots test and cointegration test, panel data regression.The main conclusions of this dissertation are as followings:1. Industry agglomeration is possibly exogenous from resources endowment, or is possibly endowed in various kinds of external economy and the increasing returns. In turn, agglomeration possibly strengthens the intensity of external economy and the increasing returns. In other words, agglomeration and these endogenous factors have an effect of circular and cumulative causation.2. Agglomeration equilibrium is the result of the interaction of centrifugal force and centripetal force. The centripetal force factors mainly include: Knowledge spillovers or learning-effect, economy of scale, economy of scope, diversifying economy, demand externality, local public goods and public policy, social capital, comparative advantage and resources endowment, human capital and its property right, FDI, ect.. The centrifugal force factors mainly include: spatial distance, transporting cost, congested effect and the negative externality, and so on. The process from the autarkic equilibrium to the city complex equilibrium and to the regional specialization equilibrium is propelled by the changes of transport costs and learning-effect intensity (or other self-increasing endogenous factors) of regions and inter-regions. Once the number of regional specialized population reaches to a certain point, even if each parameter remains unchanged, the production system will enter into a continuous dynamical transition process till the next steady equilibrium.3. Knowledge spillover or learning effect has special importance to industry agglomeration. Knowledge spillover itself is influenced by many factors, including personal learning capability and receptivity, regional culture and language characteristics, geography distance between the sender and receiver of knowledge spillover, similarity of their professional background, volume of regional knowledge stock, the character and coding degree of knowledge-spilled, frequency and density of intercommunion.4. When local governments input public goods in special central-place, in order to obtain rights and scarce land around them, there is competition and congestion among population and manufacturers in the process of agglomeration. The incomes that producers and consumers earn from public goods are sensitive to distance, which leads to population transfer and industry agglomeration, and congestion ensures equilibrium existing.5. Globalization and localization, specialization and diversification are two compatible concepts. The higher globalization the industry is, the higher localization is; the more diversified the industry biosphere is, the more specialized the core capacity is. If you want to develop a competitive local industry, you should consider things at a global view; if you want to develop a diversified industry cycle, you should think from angle of core capacity sharing and specialization.6. Through the geographic concentration Gini index defined by author, this dissertation measures the geographic concentration degree of China's 17 manufactures from 1994 to 2003. The result shows that the geographic concentration degrees of China's 17 manufactures are relatively high, among them, electro-communications equipments manufacturing, apparatus, instrument, culture facility machine manufacturing, chemical fiber manufacturing are line in front, distributing mostly in some eastern provinces along sea, including Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Shandong. Seeing about the time-processing, except foodstuff, beverages manufacturing, medical and pharmaceutical products and tobacco processing, the geographic concentration Gini index of other 14 manufactures keep boosting up. Using industries specialization coefficient, the result of the tests of relative concentration degree to 17 manufactures indicates that the difference degrees (relative concentration degree) of specialization lever and industry structure of most industries are relatively low, except tobacco processing, electro-communications equipments manufacturing, chemical fiber manufacturing industry. From a dynamic view, industries specialization coefficient of 16 manufactures excluding tobacco processing industry keep rising, among them, chemical fiber manufacturing, foodstuff process industry increase rapidly.7. The auther applies the panel data regression to analyze the industrial transfer and agglomeration among regions on the basis of the industrial value-added of China's provinces from 1952 to 2005, and it draws the conclusion that the industrial transfer among China's regions has different characteristics in different phases——before the reform and opening-up, the mainstream of industrial development was the decentralization, the adjusting in 1980's and tended to centralize the littoral in 1990's. In view of the unit roots test, except Jiangxi, Shanxi, and Xinjiang are balancedly rising, there exist transfer and relation of ebb and flow in the rest provinces, but the change degree of the Western provinces is little. In light of the cointegration test, except the tendency of industry decentralization existing among the western internal provinces and areas, the national areas and the internal provinces of other districts obey the stochastic process dominated together by stochastic factor and common factor.8. The auther estimates a model of determinants of China's manufacturing industry distribution, using two-dimension data of province/industry of 2002. The regression result shows that comparative advantage, new economic geography, knowledge spillover and regional protection ect., have much influence in China's manufacturing industry distribution, among them, new economic geography and knowledge spillover have an effect of the circular and cumulative causation in the agglomeration process.9. Using three-dimension dynamic panel data of 29 provinces and 20 manufacturing industries from the year of 1999 to 2003, the author analyzes determinants of economic growth of China's regional industries. It is evident that both industrial geography agglomeration and regional specialization have significant and positive effects on regional industry growth, but insignificant on per capita income. Concentration degree of regional entire industries is non-linearity with regional industry growth and per capita income growth. The industrial diversification has insignificant effects on both regional industrial value-added and per capita income growth, but enterprise scale has significant positive effects on them. Competitive activity grade of regional industries is positively associated with industrial value-added, but is insignificantly associated with per capita income.