Research On The Macro-fluctuation And Micro-mechanism Of Urban Housing Price In China

Since the reform of housing fundamental system, the fast increasing and violent fluctuation of urban housing price has caused the broad attention and boiling argument among residents, developers, government and academes. According to the difference of theory, analytic method and data used, the arguments are divided into two opposite viewpoints. Because of the important role of housing market in every country, the foreign scholars have engaged in a great amount of theoretic and positive research. This dissertation analyses the macro-fluctuation and micro-mechanism of housing price and discusses the efficiency of housing market by housing vacancy.The dissertation introduces supply-demand paradigm under the assumption of homogeneity of housing and hedonic price paradigm under heterogeneity of housing and concludes the deficiency of the two paradigms. The first paradigm ignores the effects of heterogeneous characters on housing price and the second paradigm has difficulties in the applicability. To overcome the deficiency of the two paradigms the dissertation gives the compositive paradigm of housing price research and discusses the situation and logic orders of application.According to the first logic order, the dissertation makes a positive analysis on the macro-fluctuation of urban housing price. By the panel data of 31 provincial districts in China after the reform and sectional fixed-effect method, the dissertation makes an analysis on the relations of macro-fluctuation of housing price and income, employment, mortgage interest rate and construction cost. The results indicates that the macro-fluctuation could be explained by these fundamental economic variables and gives a quantitative accordance of general judgment of macro-fluctuation of housing price.To better understand the reasons of macro-fluctuation of urban housing price, the dissertation analyses the reciprocity of economic partners of housing market.By complete information dynamic game theory method, the dissertation makes an analysis of the behavior between sellers and buyers. By the resolution of game equilibrium and the extension of fundamental model, the dissertation makes clear the situation and factors of optimal pricing and explains the effects of promotion of developers and land transformation strategies on housing optimal price.Because the proportion of land application determines the housing supply structure and affects housing price, the dissertation analyses the return functions of central government and local government and educes the optimal proportion of land application of central government and local government. By the game behavior between central government and local government, the dissertation indicates the optimal supervision probability of central government and optimal execution probability of local government.The speculating behavior is the main reason of the bubbles in housing market. By the analysis of threshold of profit of second housing sellers, the dissertation considers that sales tax and income tax discrimination policy increases the threshold and decreases the expected net profit of speculating sellers. So it has a restraining effect on speculating behaviors. Then the dissertation discusses the application of discrimination policy in property tax design.At Last the dissertation analyses the test of housing price mechanism. Housing price mechanism determines the efficiency of housing market resources allocation and housing vacancy is the accordance to evaluate it. By dynamic fitting theory, the dissertation explains the formation of housing vacancy and gives the evaluating method of "natural" vacancy rate. Taking "natural" vacancy rate as the test of housing price mechanism, the dissertation discusses the measures to decrease housing vacancy rate.The innovation of the dissertation includes the following three aspects:(1) The dissertation brings forward to compositive paradigm of housing price research and applies it to the positive analysis on the macro-fluctuation of housing price.By the panel data of 31 provincial districts in China after the reform and sectional fixed-effect method, the dissertation makes an analysis on the relations of macro-fluctuation of housing price and income, employment, mortgage interest rate and construction cost. The results indicates that the macro-fluctuation could be explained by these fundamental economic variables and gives a quantitative accordance of general judgment of macro-fluctuation of housing price.(2) By the analysis of reciprocity of economic partners in housing market, the dissertation studies the micro-mechanism of macro-fluctuation of housing price.By the resolution of game equilibrium and the extension of fundamental model, the dissertation makes clear the situation and factors of optimal pricing. By the game behavior between central government and local government, the dissertation indicates the optimal supervision probability of central government and optimal execution probability of local government. By the analysis of threshold of profit of second housing sellers, the dissertation considers that sales tax and income tax discrimination policy increases the threshold and decreases the expected net profit of speculating sellers. So it has a restraining effect on speculating behaviors. Then the dissertation discusses the application of discrimination policy in property tax design.(3) The dissertation brings forward to "natural" vacancy rate as the accordance to test housing price mechanism.By dynamic fitting theory, the dissertation explains the formation of housing vacancy and gives the evaluating method of "natural" vacancy rate. Taking "natural" vacancy rate as the test of housing price mechanism, the dissertation discusses the measures to decrease housing vacancy rate.