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Shaanxi Province. National Perspective Of Economic Growth Factors,

Posted on:2010-11-30Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:J M ZhaoFull Text:PDF
GTID:1119360272994211Subject:National Economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
From 1978 to 2007, the GDP of China has remained steep rise of an average rate of 9.83% year on year, and that of Shaanxi Province 10.36%, but the gap between Shaanxi and the provinces in East and Central China is still widening. As a typical province in West China, Shaanxi is faced with the issues of how to make economy develop in a scientific, sound and fast way so as to gradually bridge the gap - that is a principal concern for academic circles and decision makers involved. Therefore, a necessary fundamental task at present is to sort out the factors and their corresponding contribution rates conducive to the economic growth of Shaanxi and explore the impetus for sustainable development.The paper, based on classical economic growth theory, endogenous growth theory, economic growth accounting theory, development economics, new institutional economics, innovative economics, and so on, by the method of combining qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis with emphasis laid on quantitative analysis, calculates the effects and contribution rates from 1978 to 2007, which, conducive to the economic growth of Shaanxi, are posed by such factors as capital formation, final consumption, goods & service net outflow, material capital, labor, TFP growth (generalized technical progress), human capital, R&D capital, economic structure evolution, opening up to the outside world, system reform, administrative cost, etc. The paper also analyzes the effects of regional, cultural and psychological factors on the economic growth of the province, and puts forward a series of policy proposals.The paper can be mainly concluded as follows: Firstly, during 1978 to 2007 after the reform and opening up, although the GDP growth rate of Shaanxi Province was higher than the average level of the country, it did not get obvious development advantage actually and its GDP was not higher than the average level of the country. Secondly, during 1978 to 2007, factors which promoted economic growth in Shaanxi Province can be summarized in accordance with contribution: Material capital (57.32%), human capital including labor force and quality (15.81%), R&D capital (5.60%),Institutional reform covering reform of property rights system, marketization, transformation of the governmental functions and level of opening up (5.27%), Structural adjustment including industrialization and urbanization (1.34%), by contrast, Governmental administration cost made negative contribution to economic growth (-0.80%), "Unknown factors" (15.46%). There are many factors disharmony with modern market economy in the local cultural psychology of Shaanxi Province. Thirdly, in recent years, economic growth in Shaanxi Province mainly benefits from development of mineral resources and high-intensive capital input, due to lower contribution (about 20%) of technological progress (growth of TFP), which is only equivalent to 64.5% of the average level of the country and is still declining, such epitaxial growing characters as "resource-oriented economy", "energy-based economy", etc have become more and more remarkable, and "Resource Curse" may emerge in Northern Shaanxi. Fourthly, the contribution of human capital is little to economic growth and is lower than the average level of the country. In such aspect, it can be concluded that Shaanxi Province is abundant in human capital, but not powerful in human capital. Fifthly, Shaanxi Province and even China entered the initial stage of industrialization in 1992 and are now undergoing the transition from initial stage to intermediate stage. The degree of industrialization of Shaanxi Province is a little behind of the average level of the country. However, it takes the lead in entering the stage of accelerating development in heavy chemical industry. Sixthly, the investment made by Shaanxi Province in R&D is higher than the average level of the country. However, the investment is mainly made by the government. The enterprises only take a little proportion in investing in R&D. Moreover, the proportion of enterprises engaging in R&D activities is low. The governmental investment in science and technology is the Granger causality resulting the change in GDP. However, the economic growth is not caused by the increase in governmental investment in science and technology. The support to the development of science and technology is weak. Seventhly, the institutional reform is regarded to be an important factor for economic growth of Shaanxi Province since the reform and opening up, but in recent years, little effort on institutional reform has been made, so the risk of "regression of system" has been all the time. The degree of transformation of the governmental functions is a little lower than the average level of the country. The GDP always witnesses fast increase due to governmental factors as planning and objective assessment etc. Eighthly, evolution of economic structure contributes little to economic growth of Shaanxi Province, regional economy in Shaanxi Province develops offbalance, the county-level economy takes on backwardness and urbanization rate is inferior to national average level and average world standard and lags behind obviously industrialization. Ninthly, it can be said one important factor makes the economy of Shaanxi Province fall behind the average level of the country and fail in realizing intensive growth is insufficient opening up. At a result, Shaanxi Province can not fully utilize foreign direction investment and benefit from international trade. Tenthly, Shaanxi Province is basically higher than the average level of the country in indices and data related to epitaxial growth and lower than the average level of the country in indices and data related to connotative growth.Innovations of the paper: Firstly, based on comprehensive and multi-factor quantitative analysis, it sorts the main factors promoting the economic growth of Shaanxi Province from 1978 to 2007, and with the application (or the application after improvement) of national income analysis method, Solow residual method, C-D production function, Barro-Martin human capital model, Maxwell J. Fry opening up multiple regression model, analytical method for industrial dislocation, least square method (OLS), finite data fitting method, Perpetual Inventory Method, Principal Components Analysis (PCA), etc, establishes the economic growth model of Shaanxi Province including different factors, takes detailed measurements over and calculation of the contribution rate of over ten factors to the economic growth in Shaanxi Province, compares and proves the conclusions of models. Nearly all the data in this paper is compared with that of the national level. Secondly, It estimates independently the basic data including material capital stock of the State and Shaanxi Province from 1953 to 2007, the indices of investment in fixed assets from 1953 to 1990, human capital stock of "Method of Education Time", R&D capital stock, "equivalent value for system reform", levels of industrialization and urbanization, rate of dependency for reform and opening-up, gross capital formation deflator, and final consumption deflator of Shaanxi Province between 1978 and 2007, etc. Thirdly, it tries to introduce cultural and psychological factors to the range of study concerning economic growth factors, analyzing for the first time the local cultural and psychological factors in Shaanxi Province which are out of keeping with modern market economy, and the "Resource Curse" involved in the development of mineral resources in Northern Shaanxi as well.
Keywords/Search Tags:Economic growth, Factor analysis, Shaanxi province, Application Research
PDF Full Text Request
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