| The Budget Law definitely stipulates that local governments of all levels should draw up budget according to the principle of making both ends meet and deficit is forbidden.Except stipultation in law and statute by State Department of PRC,local government is forbidden to issue local bond.Nevertheless, after our reform of financial system in1994,financial morass in local governments is becoming worse: generation of defaulting pay ,increasingly expansion of deficit, all-pervadingly heavy burden of true bebt.Due to lack of universal organization of administrating local debt and scientific administrative method,some local governments add a great deal of debt to compensate themselves for old debt and it is incapable of creating economic benefit.This makes local governments fall into a vicious circle of self-expansion of debt,and make local debt bring about vast venture.If local debt spreads and expands discretionarily,it certainly restricts continuable development of local economy seriously, exacerbates gaps of economic and social development between urban and rural area and places a premium on all kinds of social conflicts.To insure continuable development of local economy in our country and make venture of local debt descend as much as possible,it is great necessary and urgent to scientifically and effectively supervision on local venture of debt.In the light of governmental debt's classification of financial venture matrix, this paper researches holistic status quo of local debt's venture in our country by positive method.Meanwhile, based on investigating theoretical and practical causes of production of local debt's venture in our country,this paper puts forward pertinent policy-making advice.This paper contains:Chapter one is to describe the surrounding of this paper, emphasizes that the paper aims at local debt's very effect on regional economy and society and points out the urgency and necessity of this research.The part summarizes relevant document at home and abroad,summarizes the newest research results and development in this field,and summarizes angle,object,intent,significance,the train of thoughts,process and method in this paper.Chapter two includes:the definition of local debt's venture in our country,summarization of methods in common use in venture evaluation of present local debt,the method used in this paper, presentation of pre-alarm method in common use and the method used in this paper.Chapter three is positive analysis on the debt's venture in local government.This part synthetically estimates the situation of debt's venture in our country's 25 pronvinces(or metropolises),compares and analyzes the results of the research,and tentatively and roughly calculates the situation of recessive and contingent debt in our country's local governments.Chapter four is to analyze the whys of local debt's venture in our country, theoretically and practically.In this part, the burst mechanism of local debt's venture is analyzed by building models of governments,banks and consumers; the whys of the venture in our country's local debt is analyzed by utilizing Game Theory and Public Choice Theory;the proliferation mechanism of debt's venture in local governments is analyzed by the utilization of the externality theory of public products.And the characteristic whys of local debt's venture in our country are analyzed as well.Chapter five includes:introducing the administrative situation of local debt's venture in America, Japan, Brazil, Colombia and so on.And by comparison in the debt power, pledge,the debt's venture administration in local government, the supervision on lower local governments, the administrative institution of local debt,the partition in responsibility between debt's administration,the useful revelation is acquired for the local debt's administration in our country.In chapter six, the whole view of point and target is expounded,and the specific proposal is set forth to dissolve the venture in local debt.Chapter seven generally summarizes pre-alarm system of local debt's venture,including the process of prediction system,the choice of index and method and the confirmed system of alarm grade.And the rest includes design principle,implentation,structure of actualization,functional structure and main characteristics of prediction's software system for local debt's venture.On the basis of the above,the conclusion of the research is as following:1.The situation of venture in our local debt is synthetically estimated.On the basis of integral estimation of obvious direct debt data, the difference of local debt's venture among pronvinces is small.But taking recessive debt into account, the analytical result will be very different. After roughly calculation of the recessive debt in our country and compared it with GDP and financial revenue in our country,the debt's venture existing into our local government is quite high.2.This paper combs the pre-alarm index system of local debt,analyzes them based on different viewpoints, their applicable domain and their characteristics.Meanwhile,the research makes its choices and synthesizes them,and then builds the index system of local debt's venture. Except these, the man-made BP neural network method is introduced into the pre-alarm model of local debt's venture.3.The pre-alarm system of local debt's venture is builded. The research designs the pre-alarm system of local debt's venture,which has functions of estimating venture degree, diagnosing venture cause, professional analysis,classification and treatment of venture and so on.Before the explosion of local debt's venture,some changes in index certainly occur in advance. On basis of this point, by the use of designing premonition index,setting up the limit and grade of venture, detecting and forecasting situation of venture, seeking for the root of venture,working out the countermeasure and process to remove the venture, impersonal and impartial judgement and estimation will come true on the debt's venture in our local government.The design of the system stresses computer disposal of judging venture situation and expert decision-making support in venture analysis and diagnosis of venture cause.This provides the technical support for dynamic monitor and full-process watch and control in realizing local debt's venture pre-alarm.
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