On Socioeconomic Development In Relation To Sustainability In China-A Perspective Of "Multi-Scale Integrated Assessment Of Societal Metabolism (MSIASM)"

Socioeconomic systems input raw materials (including materials and energy) from their natural environments and, through the processes that economists describe as production and consumption, convert them into manufactured products and services, and, finally, output them back to environments in the forms of wastes and emissions. The physical exchange processes (material and energy flows) between human societies and their environments, as well as the internal material and energy flows, is termed Societal Metabolism. The notion of societal metabolism has proved to be fruitful for conceptualizing the interrelations between societies and their natural environments and analysing sustainability.Since 1990's, the study of societal metabolism, especially societal material metabolism, i.e. material flow analysis (MFA), has surged and trended towards maturity. However, most current works on societal metabolism ignore energy flows, that is, energetic metabolism. The"energetic metabolism of societies", or"society's energetic metabolism", or"enrgy flow analysis (EFA)", mainly studied by Helmut Haberl and colleges, and the"multiple-scale integrated assessment of societal metabolism (MSIASM)", studied by Mario Giampietro, Kozo Mayumi and colleges, are two main notions of societal energetic metabolism.MSIASM, first proposed by Mario Giampietro and Kozo Mayumi in 2000 and further studied by Giampietro in 2003, based on the congruence among resource"Human Activities", resource"Exosomatic Energy Flows", and"Added Value Flows"in the hierarchical socioeconomic systems, and using, in an integrated way, incommensurable variables referring to non-equivalent descriptive domains(coming from various scientific disciplines, e.g. biophysics, economics, sociology, anthropology, and energy science) and data gathered at distinct hierarchical levels, addresses the various relevant dimensions of societal development and sustainability.First, this dissertation, using the approach of MSIASM modified based on China's statistical tradition and biomass energy consumption, analyses China's socieconomic system development trajectory, between 1990 and 2006, as well as the constraints on sustainability.(1) In Human Activities, China's HAH increases faster than HAPW, showing the results of China's socioeconomic development. And, compared to the world, lower HAH, higher HAPW/THA ratio and the age structure of population show the comparative advantage in working forces at this moment for China, but may represent an Achilles'heel for sustainability.(2) While EI decreases explicitly, TET in China grows steadily to 797×1015KJ(2.7×109tce)in 2006. But ETH increases much slower than ETPW. Among exosomatic energy metabolism rates, increase of EMRH is the least. As economy grows further, ETH will increase and result in a big increase of TET.(3) China's economic societal productivity and economic labour productivity increased obviously. But the increasing degree of ELP2 is quite small, implying that the industrial growth relies mainly upon the enlargement of employment.(4) China's empirical analysis showes that bioeconomic pressure (BEP) is a better indicator to represent socioeconomic development than GDP or GDP per capita. And the nearly linear relationship between BEP and GDP per capita verifies BEP is a good biophysical indicator to measure socioeconomic system development.(5) Based on the ETH level and its share in TET, it is roughly estimated that, to reach the material living level of Spain in 1996 (EMRH≈3.0MJ/hr), the energy requirement of China in 2020 is about 4,600mtce (including 260mtce biomass energy consumption) . TET and its related CO2 emission will be a big constraint on China's sustainable development.Second, the dissertation, from the unique perspective of MSIASM, analyses the differenciation of socioeconomic development between Fujian in the eastern China and Gansu Province in the western China, from 2000 to 2005.(1) The increase of HAPW was much higher than THA and HAH in Fujian, but Gansu's HAPW reduced by 7.3%, implying the size of Gansu economy did not enlarge.(2) TET in Fujian and Gansu increased to 2,008PJ and 1,429PJ, respectively. But the rate of TET increase in Gansu was much lower than Fujian, which was one of main reasons leading to the development diferenciation between Gansu and Fujian. And this trend may maintain, and even enhance, for a long time.(3) The increase rates of ETH and EMRH were much slower than ETPW and EMRPW in both Fujian and Gansu, implying the material living standards improved limitedly, especially in Gansu.(4) EMR2 and EI2 in Gansu economy were nuch higher than Fujian, implying industrial growth in Gansu required much capitalization than Fujian, which limited capitalization in other sectors, especially household sector.The dissertation consists of four chapters. The 1st chapter introduces briefly the concepts, history, basic paradigm and"state of the art"of societal metabolism.The 2nd chapter reviews the rationale, empirical researches and scientificity of Multiple-Scale Integrated Assessment of Societal Metabolism. The 3rd chapter, using the approach of MSIASM, analyses China's socioeconomic development trajectory, from 1990 to 2006, and the constraints on its sustainability. The last Chapter, from the perspective of MSIASM, analyses the diferenciation of socioeconomic development between Fujian in the eastern China and Gansu in the western China, between 2000 and 2005.