The Option Of China's Development Strategies Of Foreign Trade In The Post-WTO Era

This dissertation analyzed the option of China's foreign trade development Strategy in the Post-WTO Era. This dissertation starts from the basic theory of the option of foreign trade development Strategy and the system of WTO, highly estimates the contribution to China's economic development by export guidance, analyzes the localization by this Strategy. Combining the domestic and foreign situation and basic theory, comes out with the point that China should choose a free moderate-intervened trade Strategy .This dissertation also makes suggestions about the actualization of the free moderate-intervened trade Strategy.This dissertation is composed of eight chapter ,including intruductions, the comments of the option of foreign trade development Strategy's theory,the Practice of China's foreign trade development Strategy, WTO and the option of foreign trade development strategy, the Empirical analysis on the chian's Export-oriented trade development strategy, the basic theory of the option of China's foreign trade development Strategy, the conditions of the option of China's foreign trade development Strategy , the option of China's foreign trade development Strategy——free moderate-intervened trade Strategy.Ⅰ.This dissertation analyzed Connotation of the foreign trade development Strategy ,the ordinary theory about the option of China's foreign trade development Strategy from the area of the conclusion and analyzing on the effect of foreign trade.The dissertation generalized and analyzed the point of the foreign trade and economic increase, which agrees the idea that foreign trade contributes a lot to economic increase.It analyzed the effect of foreign trade to economic increase from the static benefits and tendential benefits of trade.Combining the opinions of China's and foreign scholars, a country should take the play of trade effect, the Strategy and level of economic development , Domestic resources and factor endowment , should be benefit for of breaking through economic development, the scale of economic developmemt, the environment of international economy take into consideration when it chooses a foreign trade development Strategy. This dissertation comments the policy and the comparation of their advantages of the import substitution Strategy, export-oriented Strategy,mixed trade Strategy and free trade Strategy.Ⅱ. This Analyzed WTO and the option of foreign trade development strategy by the wto's structure of establishment foundation of theory policy and the system of WTO.so the author thinks that the system and rule of WTO restrict each member to choose the foreign trade Strategy. But the theory and basic policy of WTO are free trade theory and policy. The multilateral trade system of WTO is the entia of free trade and trade protection. Accordingly offers a space for their members of WTO to choose their own foreign trade development Strategy by observing the rule of WTO. This dissertation analyzed the Post-WTO Era, the restriction given by WTO when China selects its foreign trade development Strategy, and the restriction of Strategy on import substitution and export-oriented. So we should actively explore a protective means which accords to the rule of WTO, to advance the liberty and moderate protection of trade in the WTO's framework.Ⅲ.This dissertation reviewed and analyzed the effect and result of the option of China's foreign trade development Strategy. About the evolvement of Chin's foreign trade development Strategy, it agrees the points of domestic scholars that China's foreign trade development Strategy belongs to import substitution Strategy before Reform and Opening-up since 1978. and analyzed the design progress, policy and character that China choose import substitution Strategy before Reform and Opening-up. This dissertation adopts Multi-indicator method of World Bank to check China's foreign trade development Strategy after Reform and Opening-up, proves that China's foreign trade development Strategy change from import substitution Strategy into export-oriented Strategy after Reform and Opening-up.Analyzed the effect and result of China's import substitution Strategy before Reform and Opening-up, author thinks although import substitution Strategy plays an important role in promoting the establishment of independent and intact industrial system and national economy system. The actualization of import substitution Strategy slows down the development of China's foreign trade and economy. Analyzing the effect and result of China's import substitution Strategy after Reform and Opening-up, the author thinks it makes the development of China's foreign trade and turns to be the third biggest foreign trade country. Optimizing China's import and export merchandise structure,slowing down the price of trade terms, these all cause by this. But the whole condition of China's foreign trade didn't get worse. The export-oriented trade Strategy forces the development of China's economy, optimizes the structure of China's industry, advances the increase of employment .According to the data of GDP and the amount of imports and exports of China from 1978 to 2008, this dissertation gives a regression analysis of the relationship between the growth of China's foreign trade and GDP. The regression analysis shows that there is a positive correlation between the total amount of China's foreign trade, the amount of imports, the amount of exports and the growth of economy. We can learn from the correlated degree that there exists a superior relationship between the amount of imports and the growth of GDP, and also the positive correlation between the amount of imports and the total amount of GDP is larger than that between the amount of exports and GDP. The regression analysis also shows that among the imports, exports, the growth rate of import and export, and the growth rate of GDP, there is a positive correlation. Seeing the correlated degree, we get the idea that the growth rate of China's import makes greater contribution to the growth of economy while the growth rate of export contributes less.China's export-oriented trade development strategy also brings negative effect, such as the increasing way of foreign trade is becoming extensive; the exports based on superior advantage are facing severe challenge; the exacerbation of foreign trade friction.The negative effect of China's export-oriented trade strategy explains that China's export-oriented trade strategy is facing a demand of adjustment.Ⅳ.Being not related to the international and internal surroundings it is in, a country cannot make a choice concerning the foreign trade development strategy. This dissertation analyzed the condition for choosing a foreign trade strategy in China. It also analyzed the influence of the internal factors on China's choosing a foreign trade development strategy in terms of the objective and the stage of China's economic development and China's becoming a big trading nation. The analysis indicates that foreign trade, especially the export trade plays an important role in the realization of the strategic goals of China's economic development; China's economic development is in the stage of the middle income countries and the medium-term industrialization, there is a new demand of the choosing of foreign trade strategy, the foreign trade strategy that has been chosen by China needs to adopt the policy of encouraging the export and provide protection for domestic industries to promote the growth of foreign trade and economy, to promote the rise of the industrial structure. Along with China's becoming a big trading nation, China is facing many problems, for instance, it is more difficult to expand export, to keep internal industries is not that significant as before, and the friction of foreign trade is intensified. All of these show that the export-oriented strategy has already not applied to the development countries like China.This dissertation analyzed how the international factors such as the economic globalization and international financial crisis have influenced the choosing of China's foreign trade development strategy. The principal influences of economic globalization are as follows: it provide the opportunaty for developing countries to promote the compatitive advantage to develop international trade;economic globlization promoted trade liberalization. the space of the traditional trade protection is diminishing gradually; it makes the coordination of the international relationship the main theme of modern times; it creates opportunities for the development countries to give play to their superior advantages to carry on international trade; it may have an impact on China's internal industries and markers. Thus, China can only adjust her trade strategy to the direction of free trade, and meanwhile, establish an appropriate national protection policy. With the influence of the international financial crisis, the trade scale is shrinking severely, and the acceleration of the import and china's import and total amount of foreign trade appeared the first defeated increase. After the international crisis, the plan of financial and economic stimulus become the major platform for every country to carry out the trade protectionism, the trade protectionism begins to show out, for example the rise of import tariff; a large amount of limitation to import; currency devaluation; industry protection policy; financial protection policy; labor protection policy and etc. This dissertation hold the opinion that the international financial crisis affected china's option of foreign trade strategy as follows:firstly,during the international financial crisis ,great extent decline of china's export shows that china's economic increase still needs of the increase of export,china's foreign trade strategy couldn't abandon the policy of encouraging export .Secondly,under the effect of the international financial crisis ,each country's trade protectiona policy and also all kinds of confine from trade protectionism be given to china's export shows that foreign trade strategy can't abandon the intervention and protection to the development of trade.Thirdly,during the international financial crisis each country make use of the WTO'S rules to protect their own country's economy one after another shows that china can choose appropriate intervention and protection under the system of WTO completely.Ⅴ.The formulation of the trade development strategy is established on the foundation of proper trade theory. This dissertation, through the analysis of the theory of traditional comparative advantage, the theory of development comparison advantage, the theory of competitive advantage, the theory of strategic trade policy and the option of China's foreign trade development strategy. It is considered that the formulation of the theory foundation of China's foreign trade strategy can't be leaded by traditional theory of static comparison advantage only, it also should be compared with other theories, especially the viewpoint of taking account of the theory of competitive advantages and the theory of development comparison and to refer to the theory of strategically trade policy.Ⅵ.This dissertation brings up in the post-WTO era, China should choose the free trade strategy of moderate intervention. The free trade strategy of intervention refers that according to the demand of China's economy development target, as general trade free, to take the measure of moderate intervention strategy, to take the advantage of comparison, to nurture the advantage of competition, to expedite the optimization and promotion of the structure of domestic industry, to promote the development of foreign trade and economy. General trade free refers that according to WTO's trade rules, implementing trade liberalization, the intervention from government should be went on under the permission of WTO's rules. Thus this kind of intervention is the minimum and won't cause serious distortion to the market mechanism. So, it won't change the foundation of free trade strategy essentially. The moderation of the moderate intervention refers to the degree of the WTO's rules for trade intervention; the free trade strategy of moderate intervention is different from traditional trade protectionism. This kind of protection doesn't go against the request of WTO's rules. The free trade strategy of moderate intervention is different from the laissez-faire free trade, the free trade strategy of moderate intervention requires countries to carry out some protective policies that doesn't go against the request of WTO's rules, to some industries, the intervention of free trade strategy of moderate intervention refers that government take policies and measures that doesn't go against the WTO rules, to interfere foreign trade, to take the appropriate protective policy while promoting foreign trade liberalization, and to appropriately protect the foreign trade of their own country. The intervention of the appropriate protection strategy refers that the government adoptes the measures that doesn't go against the WTO rules to encourage export and take appropriate intervention for foreign trade, simultaneously to promote the freedom of foreign trade. This dissertation analyzed the principles and the characteristics of the appropriate trade protection of the free trade strategy of moderate intervention; it also analyzed the differences and association between the free trade strategy of intervention and traditional trade strategy, and probed into the theory foundation of appropriate free trade intervention strategy.Finally this dissertation analyzed the policy measures of carrying out the free trade strategy of moderate intervention, it include: carrying out a moderate Effective tariff policy, imposing active flexible protection of non-tariff under the WTO's rules , constructing and applying a system of trade remedy measures, making use of t WTO rules to promote the development of domestic industry, using fully the WTO permitted measures of export Encouragement, etc.