Study On China's Nuclear Power Industry And Nuclear Power Economic On The Basis Of Low Carbon Economy Development Mode

Based on the analysis and absorption of the existing literatures domestically and internationlly, by using basic theories and methods in the fields of quantitative economics, industrial economics, environmental economics, management and other related disciplines, this paper elaborates concrete analysis of the researches about the relationship between china heavy industry and carbon emissions in economic development. Under the background of huge pressure from reduction of carbon emission, this paper also demonstrates why nuclear power could be the optimal sustainable large-scale baseload power in the mode of low carbon economy with the development of china's heavy industrialization, combining with current China nuclear power construction status.First of all, the paper starts from studying the relationships between various industries and carbon emissions, and investigates the connection of the industrial structure and carbon emissions and other factors which may impact carbon emission. Furtherly, the paper explores the rlationship of the heavy industry (as represented by the high energy-consuming industries) power consumption and carbon emissions, and composes an decoupling&coupling model in a low carbon economy of heavy industry development and carbon emissions. Research indicates that, in the context of sustainable economic development, achieving the relative or absolute decoupling between GDP and carbon emissions, is the prerequisite to realize low carbon economy. China, for at this stage, confronts the urgent task of seeking low-carbon baseload power supply, which could be large-scale constructed to guaranteen the needs for the development fundamentally.Secondly, in this paper, being integrated with national nuclear power layout and analysis of current domestic supply of uranium fuel, uranium fuel demand model has been established with introducing the parameters, such as the average fuel consumption of fuel into uranium, capacity factor. Consequently, the demand and the gap of uranium fuel have been forecasted during the year 2020 and 2050, with the corresponding making up program being provided.In the study of nuclear power's contribution to carbon emissions, this paper introduces ACM 0002 baseline methodology for calculating nuclear power to achieve greenhouse gas emission reductions and establishes a calculation model to evaluate nuclear power contribution to the amount of carbon emissions, which has also been verified by examples. Futhermore, it also establishes a carbon trading price of the ARMA prediction model to predict the CER and EUA prices in 2012.Thirdly, the paper collects and analyzes the relevant literature and related data, calculating levelized price of carbon nuclear power and thermal power generation cost, as well as comparing the cost by taking the price of carbon into account. It also amends nuclear power cost model with the integration of China's nuclear power status. Moreover, four scenarios established in low-carbon assumption have been compared by selecting numbers of different parameters from different perspectives. The optimal solutions could be obtained in different situations and different programs could be selected according to different objectives.Fourthly, the paper establishes Black-Scholes Option model of nuclear power based on cloud theory. By using cloud-based method of real options theory, which could be seen as a more comprehensive method of analysing the nuclear power programmes'uncertainty and potential risk factors, the nuclear power investment decisions might be assessed more reasonably. At the same time, a new method and fresh thoughts could be provided for the investment decision-makers in the nuclear power industry.This paper concludes that nuclear power is the primary power supply in the ecological chain of economy & energy, which can support heavy industry development model. And as a low-carbon baseload power, nuclear power is undoubtedly the most important low-carbon economic development mode power supply choice. A virtuous circle mechanism of low-carbon economy driven by the formation of the nuclear power industry-heavy industry-nuclear power to gain sustainable development of low-carbon development model could be possible.Therefore, nuclear power could be most suitable base-load power.for large-scale construction from the perspectives ofcarbon emissions, economy, network cost, project construction and other aspects.