Strategy For China Nuclear Power Industry Development

Nuclear electrical power is a cleaning, environment protecting and continue developing new energy. However, does China have to develop the industry of nuclear power? How to develop the industry of nuclear power? What kind of policy should be adapted to the industry of nuclear power? It's difficult to answer these controversial questions in China at present.By adopting a great deal of statistic data and contrasting the development processes between advanced countries and China, this paper gives a profound analysis of the situation and problem in present China nuclear power development, and emphasizes the great need and the great urgency to develop China nuclear electric power. This paper also points out that nuclear electric power development is an efficient way to solve the problems such as low energy efficiency, serious environment pollution and transportation strain which was made by the undesirable energy structure due to the main energy source is coal in present China, and a great demand to realize the development target in 2020 year.And then this paper discusses the question of China nuclear electric power development target including the capacity, speed and proportion of China future nuclear power development. From the point of the relationship between GDP level and energy consumption per population, the character of nuclear power development and the demand of energy structure reformation in China, a long-term developing plan is marked out by the method of anticipation science. The conclusion is that, by the end of 2020 year, China nuclear power capacity should be 40.3GW, and average increasing speed should be 10.9%, and the capacity proportion of China nuclear power should be 4.03% in China total electric power.Furthermore, on the basis of this development target, a technology and economics analysis model is founded on China nuclear power development. With the theories and methods of technology and economics analysis and the analysis of the inside relationship of key elements such as basic construction price, electric power price, lending rate, load facts, etc, a conclusion on the way of China nuclear electric power development which is to actively practice the home-making strategy in nuclear electric power technology under desirable policy, is made up on the research of technology, policy and management of China nuclear power industry development.The purpose of this paper is to give some advice and reference on China nuclear power industry development policy establishment on the measuring method of the science of anticipation, technology and economics analysis, etc.