Study On The Housing Price Diffusion Of "Pole" Cities In The Pearl River Delta

The housing market is the one of most volatile sectors of Chinese economy and the rapid raise in housing prices has attracted increasingly attentions, especially the housing prices diffusion within cities. The housing market is a regional market. These markets have the obvious heterogeneity, but not exclude the spatial interaction. Discussing the housing price diffusion among regional markets, would be helpful to carry out regulation with different policies and improve the efficiency of government intervention on the housing market.Section 1 and Section 2 analyze the price cycles of housing among nine cities in the Pearl Delta, which provides theory basis for division of "pole" city. In Section 3 and Section 4, by employing econometrics technique, positive study has been carried to examine the housing price diffusion within the internal city and inter-city. In Section 5 and Section 6, the diffusion mechanisms of housing price among the "pole" cities are examined from the views of spatial coefficient heterogeneity and the lead/lags in the determinants of housing price. Based on the positive research,In section 7,propose some policy recommendations.In section 8,Findings and perspectives.Main conclusions of positive research include:(1) Obviously, the housing price of nine cities in the Pearl Delta exist price cycles with high frequencies and significant lead/lag relationships.(2) Price change of housing of a single city in the Pearl Delta remains relevant stable, the "core district" of individual provides significant price diffusion on other distracts. In the long run, the housing sub-markets are influenced by the adjacent areas. In general, the housing prices diffusion pattern is coincident with Oikarinen's finding, which housing price diffuses first from the regional centers and then to peripheral regions surrounding them.(3) The internal city and inter-city of the Pearl Delta regions exhibit regional housing price convergence, which follows Guangzhou's changing.(4) The housing prices are engaged in long-run equilibrium relationships with each "pole" city.(5) The spatial coefficient heterogeneity of housing sub-markets causes obvious structural differences, which trigger the spatial diffusion of housing price. On the one hand, the low housing supply elasticity will cause the housing price fluctuation and the spatial diffusion. On the other hand, the low housing demand elasticity will produce "spillover effect" of housing price and the spatial diffusion.(6) The Granger causal tests of panel data indicate that there are two causal relationships which are unilateral:GDP to housing price and urban population to housing price. GDP and urban population Granger causes the housing price. The lead/lag changing of GDP and urban population will cause the spatial diffusion of housing price.