Research On The Multi-objective Decision Of Chinese Power Sources Based On The Sustainable Development Theory

China's economy is experiencing a fast development period, and the GDP increases faster than the average speed worldwide. Moreover, the amount of energy consumption and power installed capacity are increasing rapidly. In order to make a practical and reasonable power strategy, it is necessary to find out rules of energy consumption in development pattern for economy, and the associated environmental consequences also need to be considered. Focusing on the subject above, studies of this thesis are shown as follows:First, trends analysis on relationship between energy consumption and economy development, energy consumption and environment are made. The EKC curve for energy consumption is analyzed by principles of microeconomics. It is the first time that the EKC curve being divided into five parts. Paper draws the trajectory of the development of China's energy consumption characteristics; it is proved that China's energy consumption is still on the left of the EKC curve. China's energy consumption and environmental indicators are analyzed by Grey Relational Analysis. It is shown that that if the existing development pattern is maintained, the energy consumption would continue to increase considerably with the development of economy, and the growth of coal and oil consumption may causes increased discharge of pollutants. Thus, the environment is likely to deteriorate further.Second, Guangdong, Shanghai and Beijing are taken as examples in this thesis, and Factor Analysis Approach and Adaptive Weighting Division are used to make a decomposition analysis on the relation between economical development and energy consumption from the perspective of structure and intensity. It is proved that the intensity of energy consumption decreasing in recent years is largely due to the decrease of that in each industry department, while the decrease of energy density in secondary industry contributes a lot. However, the change of industrial structure contributes little in decreasing energy density, and it is unstable.Third, in order to investigate the power consumption of various industries in the process of CO2 emissions, whole industry is divided into five parts, including power generation, industry (power generation is not included), transportation, civilian industry and service and others. The relation between power consumption and CO2 is analyzed by AWD method. The study suggests that CO2 emissions increase, but reduced CO2 emissions intensity nearly 15 years, the decrease of emission intensity of CO2 for each industry leads to a decrease of the whole intensity, especially that of civilian industry and service industry. However, the structure of power consumption plays a negative role on emission of CO2.Indicators, which are related to power structure and reflect economic effects, environmental effects and power production levels, are taken to comprehensively evaluate and describe the development trace of China's power structure from 2000 to 2007 for the first time. It is shown that China's power structure is steadily moving away from the point of unsustainable but towards the target on the one hand, on the other hand, it is deviating from the optimal sustainable development path.At last, by considering all of the factors above, a multi-objective decision system model for power construction is built. It is built up based on restraints of environment, economical development, restraints of resource and technology development. In addition, based on different principles of precedence and emission efficiency, power structures in 2010 and 2015 are analyzed by scenario analysis, and then the target zone of China's power structure in 2015 is given. By considering the restraint of CO2, power structures are optimized according to different principles of precedence and emission efficiency, and changes of power structure under the constraint of CO2 are provided.Many points which have great reference value for formulating follow-up energy policy are pointed out in the thesis, such as characteristics in different stages for China's energy development, the sustainability of power and future economic, social and environmental impact on the power structure.