The Research On Consumption Problem Of Rural Households In Jilin Province

Jilin Province has got rid of the situation of shortage economy, entered gradually new development phase that take"the buyers' market"as the characteristic through reforming and the social economy continue developing fast for 30 years. But the market effective demand insufficiency, the resources limited supplies and so on already became restrict bottleneck to the Jilin Province rural economic development. How according to Jilin Province's situation, using the nearly national North Korea and Russia geography superiority to expand the consumer demand effectively, specially develops the countryside consumer market, promotes economy continues to grow stably, becomes universal attention hot spot in the whole province. This article uses the consumption economic theory, the quota empirical analysis method, from the Jilin Province countryside resident's consumption level, the consumption pattern, the consumer behavior three layers analyzes and discusses comprehensively that the change characteristic and the regularity that the Jilin Province countryside resident expends. According to the above empirical analysis result discussed the Jilin Province countryside resident existence some questions when they are expensing from many aspects, many angles, then obtained the beneficial research results. At the same time, it will provide the theory and the policy basis to start the Jilin Province countryside consumer market, offer the valuable reference that the government constituted the corresponding policy, provide the theory instruction that the Jilin Province countryside resident carried on the rational expense.The paper main research work and the conclusion summarize as follows:1. The article first has carried on the simple review to the expense economic theory. First,introduced the Marxism about the expense economic theory, it mainly includes to expend the status and the nature elaboration that Marx Engels was made. Marx and Engels pointed out the consumer demand is the most basic, the most initial demand for the people, the consumer demand is the social economy activity starting point, the consumer demand manifests directly the goal of the social product. Then the paper introduced the Western economy theory about the expense, mainly is the Zaire principle, the absolute income hypothesis, the permanent income hypothesis, the relative income hypothesis and the life cycle theory, the expense decision-making influence income hypothesis, the consumable storage quantity adjustment hypothesis, the preventive deposit hypothesis, Hall walk randomly hypothesis, the popularity restraint hypothesis as well as traditional expense function shortcoming and revision viewpoints and so on. Finally, the article introduced China's expense economic theory, carries on the historical review to China. The writer divided China's expense history three stages, they are respectively the blank stage (before 1978), the active stage (1978-1992), the deep stage (1992- present), simultaneously carried on the summary to the consumption economic theory on China reform and open policy later. They mainly included the consumption and the productive relations, the appropriate consumption, the consumption quality, the expense pattern, the consumption hot spot, the consumption function, the consumption level and the consumption pattern, the start consumption, promoting countryside resident consumer demand and so on"after enter WTO".2. The paper has carried on the different aspect analysis to the Jilin Province countryside resident expends overall change present situation. First, the article carries on the analysis in view of the Jilin Province countryside resident's consumption level. It carries on the analysis elaboration from the average per person value consumption quantity, the average per person physical goods consumption quantity, the average per person service consumption quantity, the average consume tendency, the Engel's coefficient several aspects and so on. And it provides the reference that the 4th chapter makes concrete study and gives the countermeasure. Next, the article carries on the analysis in view of the Jilin Province countryside resident's consumption structure. This chapter carries on three aspects analysis in view of the consumption pattern: First, the article has analyzed the Jilin Province countryside resident consumption structure change present situation from longitudinal and the different classification; Second, it analyzes the Jilin Province countryside resident's consumption structure existence difference through carrying on the comparison the Jilin Province city and countryside resident's expense angle with other areas from the section; Third, it has analyzed the Jilin Province countryside resident expense characteristic from the section in 2007, as well as obtained the result, will provide the value experience for from now on the consumption. Once more, the paper carries on the analysis in view of the Jilin Province countryside resident's consumer behavior and the expense way. It carries on the analysis mainly aims at the investigate data and the first material which the countryside investigation and study obtains. It analyzes present stage Jilin Province countryside resident's consumer behavior and the way existence some insufficiencies. Finally, the article makes the demonstration analysis on Jilin Province countryside resident consumption level enhancement and consumption pattern change. We know through the analysis, the present stage Jilin Province countryside resident consumption level's enhancement is one of its consumption pattern diversification primary causes. We can see from the estimate result, uses the countryside resident consumption overall level only to be able to explain the consumption pattern diversification 77% reasons, but also some surpasses 23% not to be able to obtain the explanation, it need even more microscopic data carries on the explanation.3. Jilin Province countryside resident consumption level analysis. First, with the traditional expense function theory and the error correction model (ECM) theory, carries on the empirical analysis to the Jilin Province countryside resident's consumption level, finds can the best-fit Jilin Province countryside resident consumer behavior consumption function. By using the error correction model (ECM) theory that recently develops in the expense function research and obtains the widespread application, the paper has demonstrated and analyzed long-term and the short-term factor that has affected the countryside resident consumer demand. Then using the error correction model (ECM) theory, referencing the econometrics relation theories, the article has carried on the analysis and appraisal to the Jilin Province countryside resident's consumption level. ECM isΔLNC = 0.0634 + 0.5103ΔLNY-0.189ΔD-0.0675ECM(-1) through studying the Jilin Province countryside resident consumption level error correction. This model reflects the essential feature is: The boundary expense tendency is lower, the effective demand is insufficient. Therefore, Jilin Province must take the measure positively, increases the countryside resident's income, expand the consumer demand. It is also the completely affluent society's goal that Jilin Province facing the modern agriculture development achieves.4. Jilin Province countryside resident consumption structure analysis. Firstly, the article carries on the division using the cluster analytic method to the Jilin Province countryside resident's consumption pattern from the longitudinal angle. We might know the Jilin Province countryside resident's consumption pattern possible to divide into three different stages through the analysis, namely 1986-2003 years, in 2004, 2005-2007 year. It proved that the countryside resident consumption pattern has the obvious difference in these three stages. Then the article uses the gray connection analytic method to carry on the detailed analysis to different period's consumption pattern, obtains the different period connection result separately, understanding change condition on the Jilin Province countryside resident consumption structure. Secondly, the paper carries on the analysis by use of the ELES model to the Jilin Province countryside resident's consumption pattern from longitudinal and the section two angles. And it carries on the analysis separately from longitudinal and the crosswise angle to Jilin Province countryside parameters and so on resident's boundary expense tendency and consumer demand elasticity, increase consumption pattern. Finally, the article carries on the analysis from the countryside resident consumption pattern question's phenomenon——preventive deposit product influence to the Jilin Province countryside resident consumption pattern, reflected the Jilin Province countryside resident's Engel's coefficient is lower why it is, but the living standard actually very low reason, and will provide the beneficial reference for from now on development.5. Jilin Province countryside resident consumer behavior analysis and forecast. First, the article obtains the basic consumption idea of contemporary Jilin Province countryside resident in order to the recycling the questionnaire and the Jilin Province countryside resident's realistic situation. Affects the countryside resident consumer behavior factor is not only the income level, but also has the psychological factor, including discrete expense psychology and abnormal deposit psychology. Moreover, the paper has discussed the countryside resident consumer behavior influencing factor from the Jilin Province countryside's expense environment aspect. It do not look like the city, including the countryside resident's circulation of commodities system and the services structure to be such perfect, the fake and shoddy commodity is expending the backward rural culture market, the countryside expense environment enforcement force is not very also perfect, the countryside resident overcuts denudation and the whole world ecological environment change also has the important influence to the countryside resident's expense behavior. Meanwhile the paper has carried on the real demonstration forecast to the countryside resident's consumption level and consumption pattern various factors, provides the theory basis for the Jilin Province countryside resident's consumer behavior, has indicated the direction for the countryside resident's future consumer behavior, simultaneously reminds the farmer to be possible to deal ahead of time affects the unfavorable situation which the Jilin Province countryside resident expends. It provides the corresponding theory basis for the government and each related department policy making, provides the guidance function for the farmer consumption.6. The article has carried on the elaboration using the kneading board data model to our country countryside resident consumption with the peasant household average per person net income relations. We might know that Jilin Province has made the very big effort in the farm machinery expended investment. Even if in the income very few situations it still carried on farm machinery's expense through financing or using the deposit. These play the positive role as soon as possible to get rid of poor, realize the farmer well-off. We also saw the Jilin Province countryside resident expends is the change according to the earlier period decides the consumption. and Its degree resides in the front row in national various provinces, explained that Jilin Province's countryside resident is quite conservative, does not have the ahead consumption consciousness, the traditional ideas to be ingrained, is also closely related with the Jilin Province all previous years' economic development level. Moreover, we know when carry on the judgment to the gross power tendency of the Jilin Province farm machinery expends in the future, Jilin Province's farm machinery will show the expend tendency in 2008-2011 year, which the gross power will present increases progressively year by year, but the predicted value actually will have certain disparity with the actual value. This phenomenon is mainly based on the following several kind of reasons: First, the factor which uses for in mathematical model which forecast to include is limited, but also has some factor that are not included exist the relation dependence with Jilin Province's countryside resident people to be more certain much. But there are also some factors are indefinite, these factor existence cause predicted value and actual value existence certain error. Second, It is a result of macroscopic factor influence. Because the country buys machine the subsidy give financial help policy implementation to the farmer, had the major action space to Jilin Province, transferred the Jilin Province countryside resident's purchase farm machinery and uses farm machinery's enthusiasm, these objective conditions have caused the countryside resident's consumer behavior change directly. Third, while the countryside resident purchases farm machinery's also consider that is suitable, the energy conservation, high quality, low cost and so on, these idea's existence also causes the actual value and the predicted value disparity. Fourth, using primary data of farm machinery expense gross power in the model includes the cross-region work and the request service farm machinery gross power. These main body will not be fixed in Jilin Province's existence situation in the future a period of time, because the cross-region work and the farm machinery work request services organization will be by crossing the Jilin Province region boundary, therefore in next several years it not to be able to determine that the farm machinery expense gross power whether to contain these main bodies contribution. In conclusion, it is the reason phenomenon which the predicted value deviates actual value as these factor existence, this kind of forecast distort phenomenon will also be normal.7. The article proposes measure and the suggestion that promotes the Jilin Province countryside resident consumption, promotes farmer additionally receiving, pull the economic growth. First, the article propose to construct one the expense pattern which suits Jilin Province development from four aspects, that is the consumption level, the consumption pattern, the expense way, the expense idea and so on. Then the paper proposed the countermeasure suggestion that solves the Jilin Province countryside resident consumption problem. Firstly is needs to do everything possible, to enhance the resident income, provides the solid material base for pulls the Jilin Province countryside resident to expend. Secondly, we should cultivate the fine countryside resident consumption environment. Thirdly, it needs to eliminate the discrete expense psychology, initiative health expense culture. Fourthly, we must advance the new rural reconstruction vigorously, improve the countryside infrastructure. Fifthly, the goods price level should be stabled. Sixthly, we should suggest that the rural credit organization launch expense credit operations, expands the consumption fund sources of Jilin Province countryside resident.