Cooperative Network Structure Theories And Evaluation-Decision Models For Major S&T Programs

Major scientific and technical (S&T) programs such as scientific research projects or technology development projects are fund to solve the important or significant difficult problems existing in scientific research or social production. In general, national S&T master plans that continued supported by state financial or to provide public technology products, e.g., 973 programs and 863 programs, are generally regarded as major S&T programs. From the related policy oriented direction and the S&T development trend, it can be concluded that a new cooperative mode among universities, institutes and enterprises is developed into a major implement form in major S&T programs. Thus, cooperative behavior management to major S&T programs is not only propitious to breakthrough major technology problems but also propitious to achieve state strategic goal. Aiming to solve the existing problems in major S&T program cooperation, it is significant to explore cooperative network structure theories and evaluation decision models.The evaluation and optimization for cooperative network system, a key cooperative management problem in major S&T programs, are presented in a new viewpoint of recourse allocation interface, and the corresponding conceptions, properties, classifications and influence factors are defined or analyzed. In allusion to major S&T program characters (i.e., high innovation, high risk, high integration, high input and high influence), the structure interface and the cooperative network structure are respectively defined as the related recourse allocation relationship and relationship-set in program implement procedures; the structure interface system is composed of subjective elements, objective elements (recourse allocation problems) as well as their complex relationships, and cooperative network system is composed of structure interface systems (subsystem) with complex relationships. After that, several major S&T program properties such as relativity, holism, intention, and openness are proposed, and the cooperative network system is classified into horizontal, vertical, and hybridized system. Finally, the operation efficiencies of structure interface systems and cooperative network systems are analyzed to be influenced by element/ subsystem state and element/ subsystem structure sequence degree.A structure interface system operation mechanism model is established originally to reflect system function emergence in allusion to subjective/ objective element hierarchies and subjective bounded rationalities. According to the related theory and knowledge, the structure interfaces existing probably in program implement procedures are classified and identified by A-B-C scale, and subjective/ objective elements (especially the latter) in each kind of structure interfaces are analyzed from the viewpoint of system function firstly. Moreover subjective/ objective element hierarchies are discussed by extending and developing the traditional concept and connotation of order parameter, resulting that the former means the properties or functions of top level (macro order parameter, MOP) are emerged from low level elements with interacting each other, and the latter means the higher control and the lower autonomy both in the hierarchy relationship among cooperators. Finally, a structure interface system operation mechanism model is established, and four kinds of MOP state evaluation problems in structure interface systems (i.e., single level & single platform (SLSP), double levels & single platform (DLSP), unary dependency & double platforms (UDDP), and binary dependencies & double platforms (BDDP)) are proposed. Specially, the presented operation mechanism model not only designs reference frame and the state level mechanisms, but also integrates prospect theory to describe uncertainty inference behaviors, as a result it is able to effectively reflect emergence from quantity to quality in system evolution.A decision making method is proposed to identify key structure interface systems based on the thought of decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL). There are lots of structure interface systems in major S&T programs, and it is a quality assurance strategy theoretically to administrate all of structure interface systems, however the program recourses will be wasted from the viewpoint of ?20%-80%? management theorem in actually. Thus the macro order parameters of structure interface systems are proposed to reflect overall system functions, based on which a method for identifying key structure interface systems is established via a general argument in complex network that the importance of structure interface system is equivalent to its outstanding characteristic in connection with others.The SLSP evaluation model and analysis method are established to solve such a MOP state evaluation problem that elements without hierarchies and outcome values with coordination. To solve above problem, several bounded rational hypotheses (i.e., risk preference is invariable, decision making cost exists, and group recognizing ability is bounded) are proposed in allusion to unreasonable arguments in current research firstly. After that, a SLSP coordination evaluation model is presented by data envelopment analysis with assurance region (DEA/AR), based on which a SLSP interactive analysis method for deriving prospect values is presented. The proposed evaluation model and the analysis method have several characteristics, i.e., the relationships are balanced well between the precision and completeness (PC) levels and acquisition costs for information, group subjective risk preferences are reflected resulting in high satisfactions, prospects from the efficient to the optimal are gradually derived, and the multiple styles of PC information are contained simultaneously. The DLSP evaluation model and analysis method are established to solve such a MOP state evaluation problem that elements with hierarchies and outcome values with coordination. To solve above problem, a DLSP coordination evaluation model (including theoretical model, computable model and revisable model) for deriving the optimal outcome value information and the optimal integration theorem for balancing both levels'risk preferences are established, besides a DLSP interactive decision mechanism is proposed to deriving prospect values. The proposed evaluation model and the analysis method have four characteristics, i.e., (1) knowledge authorities and power authorities are propitious to improve interactive decision making efficiencies, (2) the interactive mode for deriving decision information is propitious to achieve scientific and reasonable outcome values, (3) the DLSP coordination evaluation model can not only reflect two levels'satisfactions but also revise information in cognition set alternatively, (4) the DLSP interactive analysis method may guarantee the selected alternative is optimal for the reason that the bounded rationalities and hierarchies are both reflected in decision procedures.The UDDP evaluation model and analysis method are established to solve such a MOP state evaluation problem that outcome values and probability weights without hybrid relationship and both with coordination. To solve above problem, the interactive anonymously vote method is presented to derive subjective decision information based on pair-wise comparison mode and three-point interval number, after that a decision making structure for two-level double platform coordination and its running mechanism are proposed and analyzed in allusion to distribution characteristics of two levels' knowledge on double platforms (if cooperators'relationship is hierarchical than the coordination weight should be set greater than 0.5, else equal to 0.5), and finally the UDDP evaluation model (including theoretical model, applicable model) and decision mechanism for deriving both levels'decision information effectively and ranking alternatives scientifically and satisfactorily are established by optimizing two-level satisfactory coordination degree. The proposed evaluation model and the analysis method have four characteristics, i.e., (1) the coordination weight is able to integrate two levels' knowledge on double platforms, (2) the two-level double platform decision making structure is propitious to derive outcome values with reference to the same point and probability weights reflecting subjective risk preferences, (3) the UDDP evaluation model guarantees the decision information be revised in allusion to cognitive errors, (4) the UDDP interactive analysis method is propitious to assure decision efficiency and decision effectiveness. The BDDP evaluation model and analysis method are established to solve such a MOP state evaluation problem that outcome values and probability weights with hybrid relationship and both with coordination. To solve above problem, a double platform mode for deriving decision information is established with regard to prospect theory, after that a decision making structure for two-level double platform learning and coordinating and its operation mechanism are proposed and analyzed aiming to overcome group thought (if cooperators'relationship is hierarchical than the coordination weight is set greater than 0.5, else equal to 0.5), and finally the BDDP evaluation model (including single platform learning and revising model and double platform systematic coordination model) and decision mechanism are established for deriving both levels'decision information effectively and ranking alternatives scientifically and satisfactorily. The proposed evaluation model and the analysis method have four characteristics, i.e., (1) prospect theory is employed to deal with alternative ranking so as to decision makers'hierarchies, tasks, knowledge and risks can be reflected, (2) the double platform mode and the double platform learning and coordinating structure are propitious to overcome group thought and systematically derive and integrate decision information in single or double levels, (3) the single platform learning and revising model is propitious to outstand learning objects and revising orientation, (4) the double platform systematic coordination model is able to balance two levels'distributing knowledge structure and derive basic prospect values efficiently.An integrated optimizing decision model for the cooperative network system is established by means of analytic network process (ANP). In allusion to the complex characteristics of emergence in cooperative network system, an integrated optimizing thought for cooperative network system is presented to reflect gradually emergence procedures in system evolution. After that, a systematic analysis structure for cooperative network system, to reflect complex influence relationships among factors/subsystems, is established respectively from control level, network level and alternative level based on complex system theory. Finally, an integrated optimizing decision model is proposed to reflect the second emergence and evaluate system operation efficiency with the reference of ANP decision thought. The proposed integrated optimizing decision model has three characteristics, i.e., (1) the hypothesis that interfaces are irrelative in current research is relaxed, and the complex decision making problem that interfaces are correlative is able to be solved, (2) the restrict for single undertaker is broken down, and the decision making problem that several undertakers is suitable be solved, (3) the recourse allocation problem is systematically solved in a new viewpoint of cooperative interfaces, which may guarantee the major S&T programs be finished high-qualitatively.In order to testify the proposed cooperative network structure theories and evaluation decision models in major S&T programs, the method for identifying key structure interface systems and the model for integrating and optimizing the cooperative network system are testified by numeric examples, and four kinds of models for evaluating interface system MOP states (i.e., SLSP, DLSP, UDDP, BDDP) are testified by simulated cases. In addition, the overall procedure for integrating and optimizing the cooperative network system is testified by an applicable case. All results show the proposed cooperative network structure theories and evaluation decision models are scientific, efficient, and well applicable.