The Research Of Interact Mechanism Between The Price Of The Real Estate And Monetary Policy

In recent years China's real estate market is booming, the real estate has played the important role in the economic life, along with the development of the real estate market, the fluctuations and the relationships between the price of the real estate and monetary policy has become one of the hot issues and has got more and more attention. In the long run, the volatility of real estate price and monetary policy is an interactive relationship, this paper mainly studies the following two questions, one is that conduction mechanism through which real estate prices to the real economy, thereby affecting the monetary policy, the anther is that monetary policy through which way to effects the real estate prices.To answer these two questions, this paper based on the literatures, and absorbs the results of previous studies to determine the logical starting point of this study, and secondly, this paper has analyses characteristics of the real estate market and the factors affecting real estate prices ,then summarizes the effected mechanism of the real estate prices and monetary policy in the five and three channels, real estate prices just mainly through the wealth effect, Q effect, the balance sheet effect, liquidity effect, the expected effects to affect the real economy, while the monetary policy primarily through interest rate channel, monetary channel and credit channel to affect the real estate prices, and then , to test the theoretical analysis, we use the VAR model get the empirical relationships between them .The last part of article summarizes the empirical results and gives the recommendations based on the empirical results.The empirical results of this paper are as follows:(1) In the long run, consumer and real estate prices are related and the real estate prices exists"wealth effect"; investment and real estate prices have a positive correlation between them, but the impulse response and variance decomposition results indicate that investment has the explanatory power of only 0.024 in real estate price changes .This indicates that China's Investment has"Q effect"but not significant; the real estate prices in the long term will not rise the CPI, but in the short term the real estate prices will cause CPI to rise and the impact of real estate prices on the CPI is very significant.(2) In the long term, real estate prices and interest rate have a positive correlation between them and this result does not match the previous theoretical analysis, the because of the result is that our country has not fully market-oriented interest rates, which also shows the interest rate spread of monetary policy channel is not smooth; real estate prices and the M2 have a long-term negative correlation and this result also does not match the previous theoretical analysis ,because of the result is that degree of development of capital markets and capital of the "profit-driven", which also shows result in our currency is not the main reason for the fluctuations of the real estate price.