Study On The Design And Optimization Model Of Supply Chain From The Perspective Of Risk And The Relevant Issues Evaluation

The risk management of supply chain has received the emphasis from theory horizon and business community, and many cases of supply chain risk have indicated that once some kinds of risk really happened, it would cause irreversible loss and even thoroughly collapse to supply chain, hence design and optimization of supply chain without considering its risk is deficient. In addition, logistics system is the bottleneck of supply chain and one of the most critical factors that hard to be realized, hence to a great extent, the effects of the optimization of supply chain can be totally examined through evaluating its logistics system. Consequently, extending research of evaluating on optimization model and relevant issues of supply chain is possessed of more than some theory meanings, but some guidance values to practice work. Main conclusions and innovations are as follows:⑴Proposing respectively concepts and formulas of supply network CVaR(Conditional Value at Risk) and distribution network CVaR by using the theory of CVaR in financial engineering for reference, and then utilizing these two kinds of CVaR to measure the risk level of supply network and distribution network. Results of example indicates that such a method can effectively measure all kinds of risk levels in supply chain and provide necessary evidences for the optimizing decision of supply chain in the perspective of risk. In addition, to precisely calculate the CVaR of distribution network, this paper proposes a kind of new predicting model concerning about the requiring quantity of demand point in supply chain─system improved Grey Markov predicting model, which integrates the respective advantages of Grey Model Prediction(GM(1,1)) and Markov model. Relevant example demonstrates that such an improved model can effectively increase the forecasting exactitude.⑵Constructing a two-stage optimization model of supply network design with considering supply risk level, and a model called multiple targets optimization model of distribution network planning, which can reflect the risk preferences of core enterprises in supply chain. The former is designed to solve the issue regarding to combining decision on risk loss-selection of supplier- purchasing quantity; the latter aims to solving the combining decision on risk loss-establishment of distribution center-purchasing quantity of distribution center-servicing objects of distribution center-purchasing quantity of distribution outlet and then utilize Polynomial Goal Programming(PGP) to combine these targets. These work made a profitable exploration for research on the combination of CVaR and decisions on supply chain design and optimization. Further, the optimization results of example also illustrated that models constructed above could effectively solve such combining decision issues.⑶To ensure that the result of distributing benefits is fair and reasonable, the author constructs a new distributing method—Orthogonal Projection and Value method that concerns risk-bearing. This method possesses advantages as follows: being able to avoid the defects that some formerly calculating method about profit-distribution cannot satisfy the characteristic functions; being possessed of some democratic nature; being able to solve the problem about the discrepancy of various calculating results; being able to resolve large-scale complicate calculating problems; embodying sufficiently the principle that profit is proportionate to risk. Further, example cited illustrates the effectiveness of this method.⑷Evaluating the maturity degree and harmony of logistical system by citing the maturity degree model and harmonious management theory. In the first place, based on the maturity degree model of supply chain logistics system and variable weight theory, this paper constructs a kind of new method for evaluating the maturity of supply chain logistic system called Hierarchically Variable Weight Synthesizing Maturity Degree model that combines maturity model and variable weight theory to endow this evaluation method itself with scientificity and enhance the flexibility of method application, which makes the evaluation of supply chain logistics system more consistent with reality. On the other hand, this combination can not only embody the balancing requirements for some important influencing factors, but also some stimulating requirements for some critical factors. The effectiveness of this method is illustrated by factual examples. Secondly, this paper proposes the concept, analyzing elements and paraphrase of harmony of supply chain logistics system, and then calculates the harmony degree by membership function of cauchy type. More importantly, it also constructs a new kind of multi-level harmony analysis tool, namely stereo-space of D-C level, and examples also illustrates that these methods can not only scientifically and reasonably evaluate the harmony degree of supply chain logistics system, but also help find its unharmonious and critical factors.There are 25 figures, 48 tables and 179 references in this paper.