A Study On Port-Regional Economy System Based On System Dynamics

The interactivity of ports and regional economy has become more and more visible as the uninterrupted development of world economy and port industry. Under which background it's of great importance to analyse the relationship between port and its regional economy.The paper starts from system science and conducts theoretic analysis and discussion on the interactive mechanism of port with regional economy in a framework including both sides. After which the paper establishes mathematic model to mensurate how much ports influence regional economy as well as how much the later supports the former. These works are significative to ports, hinterlands and domestic macro planning and composition.Firstly the paper constructs a port-regional economy system with decriptions of its characteristics, elements and evolving process as well as the system structure, and explains the influence mechanism.Secondly by using economic geography the paper describes the patterns of spatial structure of port-regional economy system. Then with the method of market borderline division the paper analyses the spatial stucture and bonderline of port-regional economy system.Thirdly the paper establishes a port-regional economy system dynamics model. After the analysis on inner factors and causality the paper divides the system into four parts of economy-port, distribution transportation-port, secioty-port and investing decision-making. Based on which the paper founds a theoretic model.Finally the paper takes the port of Shenzhen as example for demonstrative study. After analysing the status for the port and its hinterland the paper estimates parameter and tests the validity of the theoretic model. By simulation and adjustment the model is effective on the calculation of influence degrees between Shenzhen Port and its regional economy as well as the forecasting works.