The Port Development Research Based On Hinterland’s Economy And Competition And Cooperation Among Port Group

With the increase of the international trade quantum, China’s containertransportation has developed rapidly and the adjustment of industrial structure inharbor hinterlands happened, which resulted in the change of container generatingmechanism. Governments of coastal area have high enthusiasm for the portsinvestment, while the port competition in the port group is fierce. It is necessary tostudy the port development based on hinterland economy, port group competition andcooperation relationship, to theatrically and practically guide the scientificdevelopment of the economy of port and hinterland.The paper describes the hinterland economy’s impacts on the port developmentby establishing a port-hinterland city system dynamics model, and also describes theports’ market share to hinterlands in the port group by establishing a Logitport-choice model based on time preference. The two model are then combined andapplicated for the port-city system including9cities and3ports in the Pearl RiverDelta. According to the simulation results, the model’s fitting accuracies about theport throughputs and hinterland indexes from1998-2009are quite high. The portthroughputs of ports and cities in the Pearl River Delta from2010-2015are alsopredicted, the predicted value accords with the practical situation of the ports’ andcities’ development.The nodus of the establishment of system dynamic model is that descriptions ofsystem structure require a great accordance with the reality. Based on the systemdynamic theory and port-city interaction theory, the paper establishes four port-citysystem dynamics models: single city-single port, several cities-single port, singlecity-several ports, and several cities-several ports, each including three sub systems ofhinterlands economy, port-surrounding industry, and port. To make the systemstructure accord with the reality to the greatest extent, new causalities are raised,including the relationship linking between hinterland economy and port throughputby using the container generating amount and port choice model, also newmeasurement and assessment methods are raised, including methods of port-surrounding industry choice, port-surrounding industry concentration degreeassessment, and industrial investment conversion rate measurement.When choosing the ports, owners have different time sensitivities to differenttransport sections or nodes. Thus, this paper takes a split research on containertransportation time, establishes a Logit port choice model based on time preferences.Through the analysis of the import-export processes and choice content of shippingcontainers, the paper simplifies the container transport process, introduces the modelconsideration and coefficient estimation.What kind of competition-cooperation relationship should be kept among portsof port group is the problem difficult to solve in quantitative study. This paperthrough setting plans, including two plans with high and low internationaltransshipment box volume separately for the future development of Hong Kong port,the paper find the two hubs, Hong Kong and Shenzhen can be in competition for thecoordinated development. The two ports should realize dislocation development ofservice object and service level, and improve the entire service level of the portgroup.