The Analysis On Fluctuation Reason And Control Management Of China's Business Cycle

According to the theory of stage of economic development presented by Ross, with the effective economic development of 60 years, especially the rapid development of Chinese economy after 30 years of reforming and opening up, Chinese economy has basically entered the mature stage of advance. While China succeed in achieving economic development, many people all of world questioned the authenticity of Chinese economic development, stability and sustainability from different angles. Because the sustainability of Chinese economic stable and healthy development is extraordinary strategic important to the future of China next decade, the thesis analyze and research the cyclical nature of the Chinese economy using methods of historical analysis, abstract theory and statistical measures.Bounded in 1978, the development of new China can be divided into two stages, one is the period of planned economy of construction before reform and opening up, the other is the period of market economy of construction after reform and opening up. Through the empirical analysis of Chinese business cycle history before reform and opening up, we can clearly see that the prominent features of business cycle in planned economy period is volatility, just like high dive. The general characteristics are obvious features of the classical type of economic cycle, that means economic fluctuations decrease absolutely in the valley position and economic depression is very typical of negative economic growth. In view of the margin of fluctuations, there are significant fluctuations in planned economy period. In particular, the amplitude of the Great Leap Forward period reached 48.6 percent. The amplitudes of all the rest economic cycle were more than 10 percentage points. In view of the altitude of fluctuations, the crest of an average annual economic growth rate average to 16.7 percent. It showed a situation of"big up"clearly. In view of the depth of fluctuations, the trough of the annual economic growth is lower than 6 percent and the value of three rounds of cycle trough is negative. It showed a situation of"big fall"clearly. In view of the average potential of fluctuations, the average period wave-bit was 6.08 percent. The economic development is at a low level. View from the expansion year of fluctuations, the average annual expansion is 2.6 years in planned economy period. The overall level of sustained economic growth is not strong. Therefore, the general characteristics of business cycle fluctuations in planned economy period can be summarized as the replacement frequent, peak height, valley-bit deep, large amplitude, average potential low, short expansion of economic cycle and the tight running of national economy. Because of underdeveloped productive forces and weak economic base, the national economy generally shows a state of shortage, and the contradiction between supply and demand is notable. The experience of economic development in planned economy period proved that any country especially dominant country is extremely difficult to have a successful modernization if it doesn't participate in the cycle of world economic system and doesn't make full use of external resources to develop on its own. Only making full use of all the construction achievements of human society and playing a full role of various factors of production which create wealth, a country can achieve the modernization of national economy.Since reform and opening up, based on the reflection of the thirty-year practice of planned economic management system, people have realized the problems such as excessive concentration of management power, average distribution and economic inefficiency. Therefore, economic theorists probe into the effect and character of law of value, the implement of the practice of distribution according to work, and relationship between plan and economy, finally establish reform orientation of the socialist market economic system. Since reform and opening up in 1979, China's economy enter period of rapid growth, and business cycle of China have changed from decreased absolute growth of classical fluctuation in period of planned economy to growth cycle of increased absolute growth but fluctuated relative amount. The general characteristic of business cycle is that business cycle enter the stage of modern growth that peak declines and bottom rises, average level substantial increase, economy increases rapidly but fluctuation margin reduces, the duration of cycle expansion expands, the growth of economy increases stably and impact resistance strengthens. To indicating deep-seated reasons and transmission mechanism of China's business cycle fluctuation at present and in the future and through introducing econometrics analysis methods, this thesis quantitative analyzes the influence factors of business cycle fluctuation after reform and opening up, then in the field of theory analyzes deeply the main factors causing the fluctuation of business cycle, judges accurately the influence of"the visible hand"- government on economic development, therefore makes theory judgment the possibility of sustained and stable development of economy in the future, and strengthens the science of research conclusion. Through econometrics analyzing business cycle fluctuation, influence and transmission mechanism of consumption and export, this thesis verifies that among factors pulling economic growth such as consumption, investment and export, there a high degree of correlation between investment fluctuation and business cycle fluctuation, and investment fluctuation exerts important pull effect on economic growth in the next decade. Under Chinese mode, because capital and land are under control of government which can influence the distribution of labor through policy, government influence investment scale through fiscal policy, monetary policy and land policy and regulate efficiently business cycle. Through analyzing the characteristics of market economy and government macro regulation, this thesis demonstrates that it is possible that government regulate market. Through analyzing solid material basis formed by production factors such as capital, technology and labor accumulated since reform and opening up and gradual mature of macro regulation and management experience, this thesis verifies that it is practical feasibility of regulating business cycle. Through analyzing combination effect of fiscal policy, monetary policy and land policy in China, this thesis verifies that it is policy operability of regulating business cycle.Facing China's economic development over the next decade, this thesis indicates that how China's economic development changes from global economy chaser to leader in short time in the future. The three aspects of macro regulation of demand in China are still that handle the relationship of three troikas of investment, consumption and export. Only through adjusting and optimizing industry structure, changing the pattern of economic development, increasing the proportion of resident income to national income distribution, grasping accurately the change of global economic pattern development and adjusting the pattern of foreign trade development, our country can manage investment, consumption and export, guarantee the high level of national economy, reduce the fluctuation of business cycle and increase the quality of national economic development.