Econometric Analysis On The Chinese Urban Growth Characteristics And Influencing Factors

The research on urban growth phenomenon, along with the rapid development of urban economics, the depth of the research and development of mainstream economics perspective and consistent, from the perspective of the general empirical modeling and plans to deepen the quantitative analysis of the knowledge economy, technology, market structure and social factors of urban growth depth of function. But in China, the depth of the research on urban growth and vision remains mining. On one hand, the application needs to analysis theory and the mainstream economics. The regional economy and the traditional urban economic theory research and the mainstream economics in the long-standing problem, cannot fully into the mainstream economics in the analysis framework. Currently with the fusion recognition based on research, Paul Krugman, (a) and TianChangJiu cane Krugman Fujita (for), based on the market, not entirely paid constant (increase) and transport costs for the research direction of the balanced growth of new economic geography, 2 is from the division of labor, sachs j.and Yang transaction cost and neoclassical economic growth for the direction of research, with inframarginal analysis for the tool of development economics "general". Still needs to improve the exploration framework. On the other hand, the analytical tools need to be updated. With China's transition economy as the goal, take the emerging econometric analysis tools, instead of urban growth quanlitative empirical study is still "diamond". From the planned economy to the market economy, China's economic transition, industrialization and urbanization process is the embodiment of the evolution of economic transition. From the Angle of urban growth and to interpret transition economy growth, urban population growth and spatial growth and increase performance analysis of urban growth interpretation, To build measurement analysis model of economic growth, from the two dimensions and population growth, China's urban growth of different pattern, features and factors. Expectations of urban growth through study of a new observation form China's macroeconomic development view, which is due to the feasibility, a research field of study at the potential is enormous and provides allure extremely. The main content of this article and conclusions are as follows:The third chapter is in kernel density estimation methods validation China city size distribution law. The traditional urban size distribution, often apriority hypothesis city size distribution is Pareto distribution, but actually Pareto distribution only an exception. In urban distribution parameters, scale before using the statistical methods should be certain to test whether Pareto distribution. This chapter 3 using nonparametric statistical methods - kernel density estimation method for the distribution of China's urban scale is analyzed. And in the traditional order - scale, the regression equation of the law may be omitted variable exists causes estimator inconsistencies, makes the estimated result of the present problems and variability in chapter 3 using panel data model method to solve this problem, a missing variables. This paper adopts non-parameter statistics - kernel density estimation method to China in 1994 and 1997, 2001, 2007 the city scale is analyzed. Analysis results show that the distribution of China's urban scale Pareto approximation. This paper also USES panel data model method to solve the traditional order, the regression equation of the law of scale variable problem. Missing Estimation results show that, 1994-1998, China city size distribution of Pareto index has a growing trend for 0.992 0.751 from rising, this shows that this one phase city scale also belongs to the uniform distribution state, but the city state is strengthening. And in 1998-2000, Chinese city scale distribution of Pareto index has a marked decline from 0.992 decline, for 0.769. This one phase city scale also belongs to the uniform distribution state, but the city state is decreasing. From 2000-2007, China city scale distribution of Pareto index has a clear ascendant trend, 0.769 rise from 1.740, then there is little declines. This one phase China city scale distribution by uniform distribution state into clear, urban agglomeration of sex.The fourth chapter is Chinese urban growth validation convergence characteristics and growth mode. The urban economy is growing and population growth is the concrete embodiment of urban growth. In the fourth chapter, we will be in analytic convergence concepts and summarizes the domestic and foreign convergence, based on the study of unit root test method using panel on Chinese urban growth of convergence, indirect test analysis and evaluation of urban development after the marketization of policy implementation effect. And in 1992-34 cities and national level of 2007 as the population data analysis of the sample data, a national level, Shanghai, shenzhen, kunming, as the reference for the city separately cointegration test and verify whether existing urban growth characteristics of parallel growth. Test results showed that 1992-2007 for urban economic growth phenomenon of convergence, urban random growth theory about convergence hypothesis in China. If points, 1992-1999 period of economic growth in our city, the convergence of the existing urban random growth period of about convergence theory was established. Hypothesis, But during the 2000-2007, urban growth characteristics of urban growth and spread presents the theory about urban growth mixed in this time of divergence. Hypothesis, 1992-2007, 1992-1999 and 2000-2007 three periods of Chinese 34 at the end of urban population in three panel data unit root test statistics test sample were less than 5% of the corresponding level of China's cities under critical value, the population growth does not assume any convergent trend. Results showed that the cointegration level as reference, Chinese urban growth does not exist parallel growth characteristics. For in the same size, location and regional policy city, indeed present city endogenous growth theory of parallel growth characteristics of prophecy.The fifth chapter is the analysis of Chinese urban growth path. Variable China's urban growth of regional imbalance of urban land expanded space or judgement is uneven, theoretical and relevant decision-making departments concerned problems of urban vision increased. Different speed growth equation method for urban growth and no in the process of asymmetric quantitative description is widely using. Markov quantitative analysis model is using on the transfer system of Chinese urban growth path asymmetrical features. Research found that eastern, central and western regions of the three cities average GDP growth of asymmetric similar sequence. The eastern, central and western region of three average GDP growth in the sequence of mean multi-member district division is significant. The eastern, central and western region of three average GDP growth of sequence exists long expansion, short contraction asymmetrical status. The eastern, central and western regions of the three cities of the average population growth sequence asymmetric showed obvious difference. The eastern central, western region, average urban population growth rate of three in the area of mean dividing are significant. In the east, the average urban area population growth has long contraction, short sequences of asymmetric. Expand the eastern, central and western regions of the three cities on average growth rate of the land area of the finished sequence of asymmetry also have certain differences. Two large areas in the east, land area of average urban constructed sequence has long expansion rate, short contraction of asymmetric state. While the western region average urban population growth sequence of each state expectations lasting period flat.Chapter 6 is urban growth performance evaluation model and analysis of Chinese urban growth performance. The input-output Angle, the city land, investment, population and regional output data, the data envelopment analysis method are using to assess the effectiveness of the model and the growth of the static dynamic model. Combining 1992-2008 China 34 cities of input-output data analysis is being comparised on efficiency of the various urban growth static and dynamic. 2008 in analysis of 34 in the city, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, jinan, these three cities for the growth performance, 34 DEA effective urban growth DEA RMS presented some differences. In 1992-2008, Chinese urban growth dynamic efficiency in some cities, including present average rise by an average of Qingdao was rising in the top speed, followed by changchun, chengdu and dalian and xian, annual rate reached above 10%. But during this period, there are many urban growth dynamic efficiency changes dropped, such as shenzhen, hangzhou, zhengzhou, haikou, zhuhai, changsha, taiyuan, lanzhou, xining, yinchuan, nanning urban growth dynamic efficiency eleven were decreased.Chapter 7 is analysis of the influence factors of urban growth. Chapter 7 from the urban population growth and economic growth, the choice of two typical period and the Angle of sample, using panel city cointegration theory method for urban growth factors for empirical research. Research results show that the urban economy is growing cointegration test results indicate that urban initial population scale, the urban investment and industry structure variables, foreign direct investment, the initial salary level and city urban economic growth has co-integration relationship. Reflect the urban environment and human capital city of variable and economic growth is not a co-integration relationship. Urban per capita GDP level, the initial government expenditure, foreign direct investment, the average wage rate, city and urban population growth has co-integration relationship. Human capital city and reflects the degree of the two variables and the urban population growth is not a co-integration relationship. The initial population size of city urban economic growth to influence negatively. Urban investment and industry structure variables, foreign direct investment, the city of initial salary level of urban economic growth, Urban per capita GDP level, the initial government expenditure, foreign direct investment, per capita wage, city of urban population growth rate of the relationship.